Методологические и информационные проблемы оценки региональных мультипликаторов «затраты–выпуск»

Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики. 2022. Т. 26. № 1. С. 37–68.

Chepel A. A., Chernyavskiy A.

The paper discusses possibilities and limitations in constructing regional input-output multipliers. Several approaches to constructing total multipliers are regarded. Examination of direct requirements coefficients stability shows that, although observed differences between input-output coefficients could be significant, they affect output volume for most cases moderately. The brief time consistency analysis shows that it is reasonable to use the input–output data for period between updates, but with some reservations. At the same time, the more is the data aggregation level, the more realistic results can be obtained. The non-survey approach and location quotients technique was implemented to construct regional simple and total input–output multipliers for several regions with various economic structures. Total multipliers calculations are modified by using three regional factors adjustments: propensity to consume, labor migration, and household consumption structure. The results show that such adjustments could be helpful in case of regions with high share of labor migrants in regional employment, as well as in case of regions with well-developed tourism industry, allowing to get more precise induced effects estimates. According to the calculations, the most significant effect of the adjustments can be observed in the budget sector with a large share of labor payments in output (education and health care), and construction.

Keywords: затраты-выпуск, мультипликаторы, таблицы "затраты-выпуск", региональные мультипликаторы

Publication based on the results of: Development of macro-forecasting tools that are effective in the face of uncertainty and a sharp change in trends (2022)