Избыточная смертность в России в праздничные дни
Formulation of the problem. It is known that holidays are accompanied by an increase in morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to summarize the experience of previous studies studying the relationship between national holidays and the time of death, as well as to analyze the Russian characteristics of mortality on holidays. The article poses the following questions: 1) Does the risk of dying on holidays increase in Russia? 2) if so, which ones? 3) is it related to alcohol abuse? 4) To what extent are men and women involved? 5) what is the estimate of excess deaths on holidays?
Methods. The study used daily data on the number of deaths in Russia from all causes and from alcohol poisoning, disaggregated by sex for 2000-2017. In total, 35.4 million people died during the period under review. We studied 9 public holidays in Russia. The moving average LOWESS, calculated for non-holidays and extrapolated to holidays, was taken as zero. We took into account holidays that exceeded the LOWESS confidence interval. To estimate losses on a birthday, linear regression and its confidence interval were taken as zero. We used data from Rosstat and Google Trends to indirectly estimate legal and illegal alcohol consumption as well.
Results. Five out of nine public holidays in Russia are accompanied by an increase in the number of deaths. The greatest growth is observed in connection with the New Year on January 1-15. At this time, the excess number of deaths amounted to 113.6 thousand people over 18 years or 6.3 thousand people per year with a maximum on January 1 (2.0 thousand per day). This is 14.0% more deaths than on weekdays. The excess number of deaths on the holidays on February 23, March 8 and May 9 amounted to 1.7 thousand per year. 80.9% of excess deaths in January are from men. The overall mortality and mortality rate from alcohol poisoning coincides with the maximum on January 1 and subsequent dynamics. After 2005, when the duration of the New Year holidays increased, the maximum on January 1 and the subsequent dynamics of mortality did not change. The annual maximum sales of alcoholic beverages are in December. Birthdays are also accompanied by an increase in total mortality by 9.1 thousand per year, and this is also associated with alcoholism.
Conclusion. In Russia, on holidays, mainly on New Year's and birthdays, there is a significant increase in mortality, which is mainly due to alcohol abuse and does not depend on the duration of the holidays in January. This damage can be reduced by a decrease in the availability of strong alcohol, the maximum sales of which occurs in December.