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Article

Старение населения как социально-демографическая проблема Балтийского региона

Балтийский регион. 2017. Т. 9. № 1. С. 79-95.
Манаков А. Г., Суворков П. Э., Станайтис С. A.

Population ageing is a major problem of European development in the 21st century. Rapid population ageing in most developed countries will continue to drive the dependency ratio up. This research aims to forecast dependency ratio in the Baltic region until the end of the century. A more detailed population analysis and forecast is provided for the case of the Baltic States — Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The authors use Bayesian probabilistic predictions based on data from the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Principle research methods include multi-factor simulation modelling; some findings are presented on schematic maps. The study shows that by the end of the century the highest dependency ratio in the Baltic region will be observed in Poland, while Finland, Estonia, Denmark, Norway, and Sweden will also face significant challenges. The authors put forward demographic policy recommendations for those Baltic region states that will reach the highest dependency ratio by the second half of the 21st century.