Effect of the Arab Spring on Stabilization Capacity of the MENA Monarchies
In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region after the Arab Spring, monarchy has turned out
to be a far stronger negative predictor of destabilization than it was before 2011. For the MENA, the
period after 2010 can be subdivided into three periods: a mass protests period (2011–2012), the period
of explosive growth of radical Islamist activities (2013–2016), and the second mass protest period (since
2016). Our analysis demonstrates that monarchies’ stabilization capacity was preserved in 2011–2012 and
grew substantially during 2013–2016, as MENA monarchies turned out to be more resilient in the face of
the outbreak of radical Islamism in the region.