Моделирование рейтинговой системы экспортоориентированных компаний АПК РФ. Механизм субсидирования.
The research is devoted to studying the influence of internal factors on the level of export of agricultural products of the Russian Federation.
The relevance of the topic of the work is emphasized by the growth in the export of agricultural products; it is becoming one of the most important sources of foreign exchange earnings in the country. The novelty of the work lies in both theoretical research and practical recommendations of the formed model with export support. The purpose of the work is to form a rating model for Russian companies focused on the export of agricultural products; and to solve the following tasks: to determine the parameters of indicative growth, which they can focus on in the implementation of their strategy, to give recommendations on improving the mechanism of budgetary support for agricultural exports to increase its economic efficiency. The subject of the research is the competitiveness of export-oriented companies in the agro-industrial complex of the Russian Federation.
In the course of the work, such tools as linear regression, logistic regression (logit, probit), ordered probit model were considered. As a criterion for the quality of the model, the Gini coefficient was used, (area under the Roc curve). As a result of the study, the key factors influencing the competitiveness of companies exporting agricultural products were identified, and a model for their rating assessment was developed. Proposals are formulated for using the developed system as a simulation model when deciding on the development and support of food exports in Russia.