Конструктивистский проект «Эконометрика–1930»:осуществление невозможного или реализация неизбежного?
The article studies the project of the founding of the Econometric society and its implementation in 1930’s in the context of the development of economic and statistical thought in the first third of the 20th century and its relation to the Keynesian revolution which began at that time. According to the idea of the Society’s 28 We express our sincere gratitude to the reviewers and V.M. Polterovich for their interest in our work, constructive criticism and valuable advice. Е. В. Белянова, Н. А. Макашева Журнал НЭА, № 3 (47), 2020, с. 158–177 177 founding fathers it ought to become a driving force in the process of the purposeful reconstruction of economic science in the most promising direction, that meant, from their viewpoint, its advancement towards mathematization and quantification, and implementation of the verification principle in economic theory. Realization of that goal implied joint efforts of representatives of the relevant disciplines from different countries. This unique project embodied views of a relatively small group of scientists on scientific knowledge not shared by the majority of economists of the time. On the other hand it reflected objective trends that had developed in economic science by mid–1920s, therefore the founding of the Econometric Society as well as activities of its members significantly influenced the trajectory of the development of economic science in the post-war period.
In spite of a growing body of literature investigating the determinants of youth unemployment, studies at sub-national level are still scarce, especially for Russian regions. This article is an innovative attempt to analyse econometrically the key factors affecting the youth unemployment rate and the ratio between youth and total unemployment rates for 75 Russian regions in 2000–09. The existing literature on regional labour market performance and dynamics suggested the use of a large set of explanatory variables (with indicators of the level of economic development, the demographic situation and migration processes, and the export–import levels) in a GMM panel data analysis, taking into account both spatial correlation and endogeneity problems. Although we were searching for structural determinants, we also investigated the effect of the 2008–09 financial crisis. The econometric results, presented and discussed using several models, have key policy implications for both national and regional levels of government.
A general description is given of software products designed for econometric studies. Software packages Microsoft Excel, Stadium, SPSS, and MATLAB are considered in detail.
This paper presents a preliminary analysis of hotel room prices in several European cities based on the data from Booking.com website. The main question raised in the study is whether early booking is advantageous indeed, and if so, how early should it be? First a script was developed to download more than 600 thousand hotel offers for reservations from 25 March 2013 to 17 March 2014. Then an attempt to discover more details concerning the early booking effect was made via basic statistics, graphical data representation and hedonic pricing analysis. It was revealed that making reservations in advance can be really gainful, although more data and research are needed to measure the exact numbers, as they depend on at least seasonality and city.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.