Коронакризисные тенденции в европейской экономике: новые вызовы, риски, ожидания
The article describes in detail the economic consequences of a coronavirus attack for the European region. The authors analyzed the main barriers to rapid economic recovery, the effects of the European Commission's anti-crisis actions, short-term trends, forecasts of international organizations, and risks. According to the authors, many anti-crisis measures were taken in the region too gradually and heterogeneously across countries. Economic uncertainty and risks are still high. The divergence of countries is increasing. The authors also presented an overview of all well-known indicators of business cycles that reflect the economic sentiments of entrepreneurs and consumers in the European Union (EU) and the euro area. The results of surveys, both harmonized for all EU countries and conducted by international and national organizations, indicate that all negative trends that characterize the “economic anxiety” of European managers and consumers have begun to slow down. The paper presents the main differences in both short-term quantitative statistics and the sentiments of economic agents across countries, which significantly limit the overall effect of the recovery on the economy of the region.
The paper discusses new opportunities for Russian price statistics that present-day information and communication technologies bring about. The paper is a response to the study Isakov et al. (2021) dedicated to the effort of developing a toolset to build a price quotation database through automated internet data collection and construction of consumer price indexes based on it. Discussed are the potential implications of this activity for price statistics.
Objective: The objective of the article is to prove the empirical and predictive value of the aggregate opinions of businesses and households for expanding cyclical macroeconomic data in Russia, especially during the coronavirus shocks.
Research Design & Methods: We use qualitative information from surveys that cover about 24,000 organisations and 5100 households in all Russian regions. The total economic sentiment indicator (TESI) combines information on 18 survey-based indicators. Cross-correlation analysis, Hodrick-Prescott filtering, and a vector autoregressive (VAR) model with dummy variables are used as the research methods.
Findings: The study confirms an almost synchronous cyclic conformity of the gross domestic product (GDP) growth and TESI dynamics for the period of 1998–2020. Probable GDP growth until the end of 2021 is estimated based on the expected impulses in the TESI dynamics, including those due to the sudden impact of the coronavirus.
Implications & Recommendations: Assessments of business and household activity are reliable and available much earlier than quantitative statistics on GDP growth. Therefore, we advise using them as an early warning system about economic growth and take them into account in policymaking.
Contribution & Value Added: We are the first to confirm the effectiveness and reliability of TESI as a leading indicator of GDP growth in Russia, using data from large-scale business surveys and with a focus on crisis shocks.
The article analyzes the relationship between aggregate economic sentiment and GDP growth in Russia in the context of the regular large-scale surveys of business and households for the period of 1998–2020. The aim of the study is to prove the empirical value of the opinions of economic agents in expanding macroeconomic information, especially in a time of sudden crisis events, as well as the feasibility of their use in short-term statistics of business cycles. The cyclical sensitivity of aggregate economic sentiment relative to the reference GDP growth dynamics is tested. The authors calculate a composite economic sentiment indicator (ESI) that combines quarterly information on 18 survey-based indicators. The sample used to construct the ESI covers about 24,000 organizations in main economic activities and 5,100 consumers in all Russian regions. Common empirical patterns and cyclical movement are identified using the iterative procedure of visual and statistical analysis of the relationship between the GDP physical volume index and ESI. The results of cross-correlation analysis, Hodrick—Prescott filtering, and dating of cyclical dynamics are described. The significance of the composite survey-based indicator in the sectoral and cross-country analysis of entrepreneurial behavior, including that during the COVID-19-related crisis, is confirmed. The results of the study allow one to record the “cognitive shift” in the level of aggregated entrepreneurial confidence having formed in recent years. After the decline in ESI values during the protracted recession in 2015–2016, its subsequent four-year dynamics are characterized by the lowest potential compared with the recovery periods after all previous crises.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.