Выделение глобального стохастического тренда из несинхронных наблюдений волатильности финансовых индексов

Прикладная эконометрика. 2020. Т. 57. С. 53–71.

Pogorelova P., Peresetsky A.

In this paper, the Kalman linear filter method is used to decompose non‐synchronous observations of the realized volatility of financial indices (NIKKEI 225, FTSE 100, S&P 500) into unobservable global and local components. It is shown that the volatility of the New York S&P 500 index is a global component, while the Tokyo NIKKEI 225 index, on the contrary, is more sensible to the local news. It is shown that the largest contribution to the global component comes from the observation interval from the closing of the London Exchange to the closing of the exchange in New York (16:30 and 21:00 UTC, respectively). Starting from about 2012–2014, the contribution to the volatility of the global news market is growing from the interval from closing the exchange in New York to closing the exchange in Tokyo (from 21:00 to 6:00 UTC). This can be attributed to the recently increasing influence of the economies of Asian countries (China, Japan, Korea) on the world economy.

Keywords: финансовые рынки, Kalman filter, фильтр Калмана, global stochastic trend, глобальный стохастический тренд, несинхронные данные, non-synchronous data, realized volatility, реализованная волатильность, financial markets