Evolution of Stability of Socioeconomic System Functioning: Some Approaches to Modeling (with an application to the case of Egypt, 2011–2013)

BioSystems. 2020. Vol. 198. P. 104231.

Malkov S. Y., Meshcherina K., Korotayev A.

 

This paper proposes a methodological approach to analyzing the evolution of the stability of socioeconomic systems and to assessing the risk of their possible destabilization based on the use of mathematical modeling methods. In this paper, a basic model is presented allowing us to describe the joint dynamics of processes in the economic, organizational, and sociopsychological areas of society. The model shows at what parameters of the socioeconomic system its steady functioning is possible, and at which it is impossible. It is shown that the transition from its steady state to an unsteady one is not smooth but occurs as a leap. This methodology is applied to the analysis of stability and change in the Egyptian socioeconomic system after 2010.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, nonlinear dynamics, political processes, social groups, instability, socioeconomic systems, social desynchronization, Egyptian societal system

Publication based on the results of: Factors of socio-political destabilization in the "Afrasian" zone of instability after the "Arab spring" (2020)