Международный опыт применения математико-статистических алгоритмов прогнозирования преступности
The sphere of security provision is expanding and constantly bringing in new elements, including cyber- security, information security, computer network security, etc.). The arsenal of security tools is also grow- ing due to the ongoing proliferation of digital technologies (e.g. different technologies and telecommuni- cation channels for collecting, forming, processing, transmitting or receiving information related to security of the state). The article provides an analysis of current methods and technologies for crime forecasting in the national security domain. Achievements in the Data Science and Big Data generated the scientific basis for the development of Intellectual Data Analysis (Intellectual Analysis, Predictive Analysis), based on which mathematical and statistical forecasting of socially dangerous, criminal acts was designed (e.g. anti-terrorism algorithms, algorithms for predicting the activities of organized crime/gangs). The article aims to identify major trends and potential benefits of digital technologies pro- liferation as well as the challenges that states face while using mathematical and statistical methods for predicting crime. The meta-analysis of scientific researches and implementation of crime forecasting algorithms in different countries (such as USA, China, Japan, Singapore, India) helps to demonstrate a pluralism of approaches in the application of forecasting systems. The first part of the article presents the methodological and technical aspects of criminal data mining. The second part provides an overview of national practices in using crime prediction algorithms by the examples of Singapore, Japan, and India. The third and fourth parts are devoted to a more detailed analysis of the strategies and tactics of using algorithms in the USA and China, respectively. The analysis reveals the risks and benefits inherent in the most frequently applied mathematical and statistical crime forecasting algorithms. First, it is the “milita- rization” of the civilian sphere. Second, the algorithms, which do not take into account the social, cul- tural and political features of a given society, lead to the loss of statistical significance of forecasting. Third, historical data (recorded crimes) often contain racial, sexual, and contextual biases. Fourth, existing approaches do not pay heed to personal characteristics of a subject, as well as decision-making processes not infrequently resulting in wrongful conduct. Finally, there is no state control over the balance between the use of algorithms and respect for human rights.
The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) is one of the key platforms of the multilateral dialogue on global agenda issues in the Asia-Pacific region. Notwithstanding its regional character, the annual APEC leaders` summits significance is comparable with that of the key global governance institutions, such as the G8 and G20, summits. With increasing integration and enhanced economic relationships as well as established interaction pattern the APEC influence on regional and global economic agenda is growing. In spite of the fact that APEC initially positioned itself as a “free group of economics” not a political association, the member states step-by-step turn to the most acute worldwide political issues, which is reflected in the leaders` statements made during the summit. The analysis of the APEC 2013 summit which was held within the Indonesian presidency on 7-8 October 2013 on Bali provides an insight into the main drivers of the APEC agenda. Given that currently all countries face similar economic and social challenges: low and stalling economic growth, need to pursue fiscal consolidation, persistent structural unemployment, widening income disparities, base erosion and profit shifting as well as tax evasion, climate change negative consequences etc, it`s useful to analyze the measures implemented at the regional level (APEC), as well as the global level (G20). A comparison with the G20 is largely determined shared challenges and by the intersecting memberships: almost half of the members of the institutions participate in both fora, namely Australia, Canada, China, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Republic of Korea, Russia and the United States. The recent APEC and G20 agendas aim to coordinate actions to resolve the shared problems and move towards new growth models. The analysis is based on the key summit documents - Bali Declaration “Resilient Asia-Pacific, Engine of Global Growth”, Joint Ministerial Statement, leaders` statements and accompanying documents. The analysis permits to identify the vector of APEC agenda development.
On May 18-19, 2012, at the presidential retreat in Camp David in Maryland, U.S. president Barack Obama hosted the 38th annual G8 summit. The leaders discussed global economic growth, development, and peace and security. After less than 24 hours of face-to-face time among the leaders, they issued communiqué of only five pages. However, Camp David was a significant success. The leaders came together to effectively address the most pressing issues of the day while setting the direction for the summits that were to follow, including the summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in Chicago, the G20 in Los Cabos, Mexico, and the Rio+20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. That success was propelled by several causes. The first is the set of strong global shocks were particularly relevant to a number of items on the agenda. This included the newest installment of the euro-crisis, spikes in oil and food prices, and the escalating violence in Syria. The second is the failure of the other major international institutions to address these challenges. The third is the club’s dedication to the promotion of democracy and its significance on issues such as the democratic transition in the Middle East and North Africa. The fourth is the high relative capabilities of G8 members, fuelled by the strength of the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen and the British pound. The fifth is the domestic political control, capital, continuity, competence and commitment of the leaders in attendance. Camp David saw several G8 leaders returning for their sixth or seventh summit and leaders with a secure majority mandate and control of their legislative houses at home. Finally, the constricted participation at the remote and secluded Camp David Summit, a unique and original advantage of the G8 summit style, allowed for more spontaneous conversation and interpersonal bonds. Together, these interconnected causes brought the G8 back, as a broader, bigger, bolder centre of effective global governance.
In this paper, we present a modification of dynamic programming algorithms (DPA), which we denote as graphical algorithms (GrA). For some single machine scheduling problems, it is shown that the time complexity of the GrA is less than the time complexity of the standard DPA. Moreover, the average running time of the GrA is often essentially smaller. A GrA can also solve large-scale instances and instances, where the parameters are not integer. For some problems, GrA has a polynomial time complexity in contrast to a pseudo-polynomial complexity of a DPA.
Information systems have been developed in parallel with computer science, although information systems have roots in different disciplines including mathematics, engineering, and cybernetics. Research in information systems is by nature very interdisciplinary. As it is evidenced by the chapters in this book, dynamics of information systems has several diverse applications. The book presents the state-of-the-art work on theory and practice relevant to the dynamics of information systems. First, the book covers algorithmic approaches to numerical computations with infinite and infinitesimal numbers. Also the book presents important problems arising in service-oriented systems, such as dynamic composition, analysis of modern service-oriented information systems, and estimation of customer service times on a rail network from GPS data. After that, the book addresses the complexity of the problems arising in stochastic and distributed systems. In addition, the book discusses modulating communication for improving multi-agent learning convergence. Network issues, in particular minimum risk maximum clique problems, vulnerability of sensor networks, influence diffusion, community detection, and link prediction in social network analysis, as well as a comparative analysis of algorithms for transmission network expansion planning are described in subsequent chapters. We thank all the authors and anonymous referees for their advice and expertise in providing valuable contributions, which improved the quality of this book. Furthermore, we want to thank Springer for helping us to produce this book.
We revisit the problems of computing the maximal and the minimal non-empty suffixes of a substring of a longer text of length n, introduced by Babenko, Kolesnichenko and Starikovskaya [CPM’13]. For the minimal suffix problem we show that for any 1 ≤ τ ≤ logn there exists a linear-space data structure with(τ)query time and(nlogn/τ)preprocessing time. As a sample application, we show that this data structure can be used to compute the Lyndon decomposition of any substring of the text in(kτ)time, where k is the number of distinct factors in the decomposition. For the maximal suffix problem we give a linear-space structure with(1)query time and(n)preprocessing time, i.e., we manage to achieve both the optimal query and the optimal construction time simultaneously.
The article deals with the processes of building the information society and security in the CIS in accordance with modern conditions. The main objective is to review existing mechanisms for the formation of a common information space in the Eurasian region, regarded as one of the essential aspects of international integration. The theoretical significance of the work is to determine the main controls of the regional information infrastructure, improved by the development of communication features in a rapid process.The practical component consists in determining the future policies of the region under consideration in building the information society. The study authors used historical-descriptive approach and factual analysis of events having to do with drawing the contours of today's global information society in the regional refraction.
The main result is the fact that the development of information and communication technologies, and network resources leads to increased threats of destabilization of the socio-political situation in view of the emergence of multiple centers that generate the ideological and psychological background. Keeping focused information policy can not be conceived without the collective participation of States in the first place, members of the group leaders of integration - Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Currently, only produced a comprehensive approach to security in the information field in the Eurasian region, but the events in the world, largely thanks to modern technology, make the search for an exit strategy with a much higher speed. The article contributes to the science of international relations, engaging in interdisciplinary thinking that is associated with a transition period in the development of society. A study of current conditions in their relation to the current socio-political patterns of the authors leads to conclusions about the need for cooperation with the network centers of power in the modern information environment, the formation of alternative models of networking, especially in innovation and scientific and technical areas of information policy, and expanding the integration of the field in this region on the information content.
This special publication for the 2012 New Delhi Summit is a collection of articles by government officials from BRICS countries, representatives of international organizations, businessmen and leading researchers.
The list of Russian contributors includes Sergei Lavrov, Foreign Minister of Russia, Maxim Medvedkov, Director of the Trade Negotiations Department of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Vladimir Dmitriev, Vnesheconombank Chairman, Alexander Bedritsky, advisor to the Russian President, VadimLukov, Ambassador-at-large of the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry, and representatives of the academic community.
The publication also features articles by the President of Kazakhstan NursultanNazarbayev and internationally respected economist Jim O’Neil, who coined the term “BRIC”. In his article Jim O’Neil speculates about the future of the BRICS countries and the institution as a whole.
The publication addresses important issues of the global agenda, the priorities of BRICS and the Indian Presidency, the policies and competitive advantages of the participants, as well as BRICS institutionalization, enhancing efficiency and accountability of the forum.