Экономическое развитие и циклические настроения российских предпринимателей после рецессии 2014-2016 годов
The core objective of the study, results of which are summarized in this article, is to determine the eff ectiveness of using assessments of economic agents in the analysis of sectoral and macroeconomic development. The paper tests the hypothesis of the cross impact of economic growth and entrepreneurial behavior. It is assumed that economical cyclicity is produced not only by macroeconomic shocks, but also by the impulses generated in the business environment. The sentiment and expectations of entrepreneurs are considered in this case both as a consequence of the ongoing economic events, and as a warning factor aff ecting the economic decision-making.
To test the hypothesis, the authors used results of all sectoral business tendency monitoring of the HSE and Rosstat, which reflect the aggregate sentiment and expectations of about 24 thousand entrepreneurs and 5 thousand consumers. The monitoring results are combined into the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), which calculation algorithm is based on the generally accepted international methodology and is updated taking into account the specifi cs of the Russian economy.
The joint decomposition of the time series of the ESI and the reference series of GDP growth with extracting growth cycles and the dating turning points confi rms the cyclical correspondence of the dynamics of the analyzed indicators. An empirical consistency of ESI and GDP time series is revealed based on cross-correlations, a long-term linear regression and through a two-dimensional vector autoregression model. This model is used for short-term forecasting; the forecasting results indicate an unstable and slow acceleration of GDP growth in 2020.
Given the ESI calculation effi ciency and a noticeable advance in its publication compared to publication of offi cial data on GDP growth, as well as ESI statistical eff ectiveness, it can be concluded that the aggregate estimates of entrepreneurial and consumer sentiment accumulated over a 20-year period are acceptable and reliable as leading information on economic growth in the country.