Определение темпов инфляции в инвестиционно-строительном секторе экономики
The aim of the study: to show the complexity and heterogeneity of inflation processes, which break down into inflation processes of sectoral economies, to conduct a comparative analysis of prices using two-dimensional distributions, to show the difference between the inflationary component in the investment and construction sector of the economy from inflation indicators used in everyday real estate valuation practice, to propose a method for calculating the level of inflation that appraiser could use independently, based on current market data. As methods of the carried-out research the system and comparative analysis, method of analogies, the content analysis were used. The main attention is paid to the use of multidimensional statistical analysis, the use of the logarithmically normal distribution model as distributions that adequately reflect the asymmetric empirical distribution of prices and convenient from a computational point of view, and the conclusion of the calculation formulas derived from the corresponding hypothesis. The latest data published by Rosstat on the dynamics of prices for different groups of goods, as well as data from one of the construction companies of St. Petersburg were used as statistical materials. The study is divided into the following stages: calculation of the inflation rate for the product group, based on the hypothesis of jointly logarithmically normal distribution of prices of the reference group of goods in the base year and in the year of comparison, as well as the hypothesis of logarithmically normal distribution of weights of the consumer basket, comparison of the result with official data, then a similar calculation of the inflation rate in the evaluation of objects in the investment and construction sector of the economy. Results: the article proposes a method of determining the rate of inflation in the evaluation of market value income approach based on statistical analysis of market data. The method allows to determine the estimated inflation rate acceptable for the construction industry and real estate valuation problems income approach. Conclusion: it is shown that in the evaluation of real estate, a more thorough study of sectoral inflation rates is necessary, since the forced use in the evaluation of real estate data on inflation in the consumer sector is not always correct. The General questions of estimation of inflation rate and deflator coefficients by market data on the basis of two-dimensional distributions of random variables are also touched upon. Modern methods of big data processing, technical capabilities, a large number of software products on the market, the prospects of the digital economy pose the task of creating extensive and accessible to appraisers and analysts databases equipped with analytical tools. The goal is difficult, because the carriers of reliable information (such as retail chains, for example) often avoid publicity. In this regard, there is a task to coordinate the efforts of the scientific community and business to solve common modern problems and challenges.