Cмягчение условий дополняющей нежесткости в динамических моделях общего равновесия
In this article we propose the description and the rationale of the heuristic approach, which can be used in applied dynamic economic models containing agents' optimization problems. Solution of these problems leads to a system containing differential and algebraic equations, inequalities and complementary slackness conditions. These conditions significantly complicate the analysis of such models even on the calibration stage. In this article we show how the natural assumption of the alternation of regimes, which are defined by a way of complementary slackness conditions resolution, leads to relations which are more regular and convenient from the point of model calibration.
We proposed the nonlinear dynamic model of the formation of the market prices of precious metals based on the econophysic considerations. This model is a system of three ordinary differential equations relating the time dependence of elasticity, variations of bid and ask prices; it is similar to the Lorenz system. The areas of the dynamic stochasticity in experimental data were found with the comparing of the experimental and the theoretical ask and bid prices. These areas are the precursors of the crisis mode in the form of dynamic chaos.
The work carried out research and development of methods for the dynamic configuration of the smart thing's interfaces on the mobile devices with limited resources. This article describes a mathematical model of the environment for dynamic reconfigurable interfaces of smart things on mobile devices with limited resources, the method of assigning a set of basic interface elements to reconfigure interface of smart things and heuristic algorithm for dynamic smart thing's interface reconfiguration.
Supply chain management is rather new scientific field that reflects the concept of integrated business planning. This concept should be experts and practitioners in logistics and strategic management. Today, integrated planning to become a reality thanks to the development of information technology and computer technology. At the same time to achieve a competitive advantage is not enough high-speed, low-cost data transfer process. In order to effectively apply information technology tools necessary to develop a quantitative analysis of the effectiveness of supply chain management. The mam element of this tool are optimization models that reveal the complex interactions, the wave and the synergies that arise in supply chain management. In this article we consider one of the classes of such models - the so-called dynamic models of conveyor systems, processing of applications.
Authorities of the state regulation, creditors and investors are interested in getting reliable information about the banking sector activities. The procedure of bank financial soundness and accountability evaluation is carried out by supervision authorities as well as by international and national rating agencies. The analysis of the methodologies of bank accountability evaluation and forecasting in Russia shows the following results. The Bank of Russia makes decisions on banks financial soundness based on financial coefficients of different groups; the calculations are grounded on the official bank statements. Apart from financial indicators, rating agencies evaluate qualitative parameters of the bank activities. The common problem of the bank financial accountability analysis in Russia is the lack of use of the forecasting methods predicting the financial statement of banks and the probability of default. As a result, the problem-free banks corresponding to the demands of the supervision authorities on standards were considered to be problematic during the crisis. The aim of this research is the dynamic analysis of the main indicators of the Russian banks activities at the different stages of the economic cycle in order to identify the indicators of the early bankruptcy prediction and the opportunity to forecast the changes in the bank financial statement.
In this work the demand for the incoming tourism in the Russian Federation is modeling. The panel data for 16 countries - the basic sources of tourist streams - and the period with 2000 for 2009 are used. Modeling is spent separately for each of 10 tourist zones of Russia. In quality a determinant of demand there are considered a total national product in a country of origin, the exchange rate, transport charges, cost of residing, lag of the demand variable and the fictitious variables reflecting influence of shocks in quality a determinants of demand. The received estimations of dynamic models of demand correspond to expectations, are statistically significant and can be useful in practice of planning of development of entrance tourism in various municipal formations and regions of Russia.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.