Анализ выживаемости авторитарных режимов в рентно-сырьевых экономиках: возможности и ограничения модели пропорциональных рисков
Most researchers believe that states that are rich in natural resources are more able to maintain stability than those in which they are absent. The research problem touches upon the exceptions that do not fit into this proposition. Based on the idea that the state’s ability to extract resources imposes on it certain obligations to secure a public contract, the author hypothesizes that the quality of government is a mediating factor in the influence of resource dependence on the stability of autocracy. This factor is operationalized as the ability to pursue the declared policy and to distribute the public goods effectively. Using the Cox regression, the author carries out the survival analysis, which made it possible to substantiate this assumption statistically. The hypothesis was theoretically substantiated and observed in some examples of resource rent economies. The analysis showed that the of survival time of the authoritarian regime increases if the indicators of quality of government are high. The author tackles the issue of quantitative measurement of resource dependence and argues in favor of using the share of natural resources rents in GDP as such indicator. The article also provides the analysis of limitations and possibilities of Cox regression in analyzing the survival of autocracies and makes suggestions for improving the proportional hazards model.
The paper aims at contributing to the debate on whether open govern-ment impacts the quality of governance, and if so, identify the causal mechanisms that might be evident to support this impact. Using structural equation modeling, we test the sample of country-level data from 2014 to 2017, assessing the direct effect of open government on the government effectiveness, as well as its indirect effect via the levels of democracy and corruption. Our analysis confirms that open government may have positive effects on the quality of governance, but this effect is moderated by the level of corruption in a country.
The article presents the results of market research workforce in the sector of young professionals as the most promising at the moment: are the official statistics (Rosstat) on the unemployment rate among university graduates, as well as major research centers (Superjob.ru, HeadHunter) in dynamics analyzed the main trends of the positioning of the young specialist in the labor market in order to increase competitiveness. The paper gives a brief description of the advantages and disadvantages of internships young professionals from the perspective of the employer and the candidate for the vacancy.
The authors have paid special attention to the application of survival analysis and Cox regression in the study of the processes occurring in the labor market of young professionals. The results of the analysis of data on an internship at a major international company. Processing of initial data array made using the application package IBM SPSS Statistics.
At the first stage the authors present an analysis of the sampling frame. Constructed and interpreted life tables and survival curves were analyzed dynamics of disposal of candidates and the probability distribution for the disposal of trainees by the end of the probationary period, depending on the qualification (degree) of education received. The results are interpreted according to the influence of various factors on the success of the internship candidate. Based on these results, the authors provide preliminary recommendations, which can take advantage of the company, taking an internship young professionals for a higher level of efficiency of their passing. In this case, the company will be able to get a long-term qualified staff and specialists - a decent place to work.
The collective monoghraphy, 10th in the Seria, represents the results of research seminar for Master degree students of 1st year education of NRU HSE program "Public Administration" from year 2015-2016. The accents at the articles was made on the style peculiarities of texts composing, and on the understanding of some common features of research articles with practice oriented projects in the field of policy and programs evaluation.
Managing the peaceful transition of authoritarian states to democracy and a market-economic system represents a tremendous challenge. Whether it comes to reconstituting the coherency of the state following armed conflict, expanding participation rights and the rule of law in emerging democracies, overcoming corrupt structures, fighting poverty and inequality, or establishing clear rules for stable market-economic competition, the requirements are enormous, and the pressure on responsible leaders is intense. After all, the quality of political management makes an essential contribution to the success or failure of transformation processes. The Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Transformation Index (BTI) thus systematically places political decision-makers’ steering capability at the heart of its analysis and, as a result, is the only index in the world that measures and compares the quality of governance with self-collected data. This is done in the firm conviction that the ongoing comparative study of transformation processes is invaluable for the successful design of reforms and holds enormous global potential to learn from different political strategies for steering change, even though diverse traditions, power configurations, resources and cultures necessarily make each transformation process unique. The BTI measures and compares transition processes in 129 transformation countries with data collected between 2013 and 2015 and establishes their global rating based on detailed country reports. Now in its seventh edition, it offers the opportunity to understand long-term trends and global developments through the analysis of time-series data. The spotlight on current developments is thus complemented by a decade of data that captures the most varied transformation processes and puts into perspective recent progress and setbacks on the way to democracy and a market economy.
Strong institutions and good governance are instrumental for success in the global economy. While the quality of national governance has positive effect on a country’s economic performance, it is not a necessary condition. Poor governance can be offset with the country’s comparative advantages; however, such advantages are likely to be geographically concentrated. We argue that in present-day Russia weak institutions and low quality of national governance make most regions unable to compete in the global economy.