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Article

Новый Индекс делового климата в обрабатывающей промышленности России

Вопросы статистики. 2018. № 8. С. 15-24.

The article describes methodological tools that allow expanding information capabilities of the results of business tendency surveys in the Russian manufacturing by using a new composite indicator - the Business Climate Index. The authors explain the feasibility of an alternative measure that summarizes information about entrepreneurial opinions, and give arguments to prove its effectiveness. Identification of the cyclic profile in the new index dynamics and its visualization through the tracer clearly demonstrate all significant waves of producers’ optimism and pessimism over the period since January 2005 to February 2018 as important drivers of the ongoing changes in the business climate of national manufacturing. Graphical interpretation of the VAR simulation results using the impulse response function allows us to detail the relationship between the dynamics of indices of business climate and industrial production in recent years.