Модель оптимального поведения агрегированного домохозяйства
A non-standard macroeconomic approach is discussed in this paper. An aggregate household rational behavior nonlinear dynamic model is presented, in which household is characterized by budget constraint with inclusion of various financial and investment instruments. Model is fully solved what means that final trajectories for consumption and labor are derived. A key feature of this paper is specific type of utility function that allows to estimate both consumption and labor trajectories.
The proceedings from the 15th EDAMBA conference, which took place at the University of Economics in Bratislava on 22nd November 2012 have been prepared as a joint refereed publication of participants presenting their papers at the conference. The aim of EDAMBA as an organisation is to promote the exchange of information, to enhance the mobility of PhD candidates, to promote research cooperation and to increase the quality of PhD programmes and to create an environment of excellence with a European perspective while pursuing the existing diversity.
Curriculum vitae of the economist and philosopher J.M. Keynes is given. Some cogitative communications with other economists-theorists are traced
New revised edition of the classical text J.M. Keynes' "The General theory of employment, interest and money " 1936
Special characteristics of modern employment demonstrate serious changes in the character and the content of the labour process. The phenomenon of “the end of labour in its classical sense”, which triggered heated debates in the end of the XX century, was described in details by British sociologist Z. Bauman in his work «The Individualized Society»:
“That situation has changed now, and the crucial ingredient of the change is the new ‘short term’ mentality which came to replace the ‘long term’ one. Marriages ‘till death us do part’ are now a rarity: the partners no longer expect to stay long in each other’s company. According to the latest calculation, a young American with a moderate level of education expects to change jobs at least eleven times during his or her working life – and that ‘job-changing’ expectation is certain to go on growing before the working life of the present generation is over. ‘Flexibility’ is the slogan of the day, and when applied to the labour market it means an end to the job ‘as we know it’, work on short-term contracts, rolling contracts or no contracts, positions with no inbuilt security but with the ‘until further notice’ clause” [Bauman 2001, p. 24].
Rising on the wave of industrialization, after the transition to the postindustrial, information epoch, labour is losing its past significance. More and more people consider labour as a heavy routine and would like to get rid of it forever. And especially in the circumstances of depressive aggravation of the so called global problems, which have not only been left unsolved since they were identified by the Rome club, but continue to forebode humanity death from ecological catastrophes, depletion of natural resources, incurable diseases, the planet’s overpopulation etc.
There are obvious dramatic changes in the labour and employment sphere. After the transition to the postindustrial economy, classic labour (as a hard, back-breaking work, focused on achieving a material (embodied) result) ceases determining the sense of human existence.
The article presents a review of events in the financial market in 2007-2008. The author studies the interconnection between macroeconomic policy conducted by the USA monetary authorities since beginning of 1980-s till now, and the risks which have concentrated in the financial system and resulted in the crisis. The author specifies the mechanisms of the crisis deepening and broadening, and gives her own evaluation to them.
In this paper following Ball (2012) I estimate the demand function for narrow money aggregate M1 in Russia for 2003-2012. I show that after inclusion of cash foreign exchange and relevant interest rate the money demand is stable in the long- and the short-run and estimated long-run elasticities and short-run dynamics of the money demand yields sensible values for the simple functional form. I also show that most of the short-run volatility of the money holding can be attributed to the slow speed of adjustment of the demand not to the unexplained shocks.
The welfare analysis of the monetary policy has been in the centre of macroeconomics since the Great Depression. Empirical observations of the Phillips curve suggest that prices are sticky in the short run and, therefore, the monetary policy may be used to smooth the business cycle and increase social welfare.
In an open economy where foreign shocks may be passed into the domestic economy the task of the monetary policy becomes even more complicated. Under high pass-through of exchange rate onto the domestic prices, monetary policy stops to be independent and should adjust to exchange rate shocks. Such a policy of smoothing exchange rate fluctuations is common in western economies (e.g. [Parsley, Popper, 1998]).
The problem of optimal monetary policy is extremely relevant for Russia. Although the monetary authority claims that inflation targeting is the main goal of the monetary policy, empirical finding suggest that the real exchange rate targeting is of major importance [Vdovichenko, Voronina, 2004]. Due to the rising flow of petrodollars, Rouble is experiencing significant real appreciation recently. But the fear to loose exports makes the monetary authority respond to this real appreciation by accumulating dollar reserves and increasing the money supply, thus preventing the nominal appreciation. Such policy leads to high inflation and benefits of some interested groups at the expense of others. That is why the optimal degree of intervention is in the centre of all political and economic discussions nowadays.
Recent empirical literature finds that prices are more sticky downwards than upwards. This effect it called «asymmetric price rigidity» and may result from money illusion of workers, collusive behaviour of firms or search behaviour of consumers. Therefore, in this paper we propose a model in which we assume downward price rigidity and determine the optimal monetary policy in case of positive and negative exchange rate shocks. We claim that while depreciation of the domestic currency should be accompanied by a significant rise in the interest rate, its appreciation of the same size should be accompanied by a much smaller cut in the interest rate. Then we test this claim on the Russian data.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.