Temporary price trends in the stock market with rational agents
The paper contributes to the study of the features of temporary trends in stock indexes using an equilibrium approach with rational agents. It shows that the diffusion of significant fundamental information generates a Z-type aggregate demand function that leads to the occurrence of such a phenomenon as an imbalance (or disequilibrium). Pricing analysis under imbalance reveals that, with the exception of the independence of consecutive returns, there is a nonlinearity in mean that can be empirically detected using a threshold model or a regime switching model. The proposed model facilitates the convergence of the equilibrium approach with the methodology of evolutionary economics and can also be useful in studies of financial fragility.
We develop a model of asset pricing and hedging for interconnected financial markets with frictions – transaction costs and portfolio constraints. The model is based on a control theory for random fields on a directed graph. Market dynamics are described by using von Neumann – Gale dynamical systems first considered in connection with the modelling of economic growth [13,24]. The main results are hedging criteria stated in terms of risk-acceptable portfolios and consistent price systems, extending the classical superreplication criteria formulated in terms of equivalent martingale measures.
This paper reviews the contribution of Eugene Fama, Lars Hansen and Robert Shiller to financial asset pricing research. We show how the Nobel prize winners have changed the approach to asset pricing research, as well as the views of academic economists and investors about price predictability and the risk-return relationship.
Overvaluation on financial markets, high price volatility and quite rapid reduction of emerging markets towards an investment behavior field in terms of predictive estimation and forecast of further market changes. Hereby decision-making basis is a personal investment understanding and, due to favorable business climate, could build up the growth of irrational exuberance and speculative bubbles on financial markets.
This study models Market Certainty Index as a measure of asset overpricing and market overvaluation in terms of a speculative bubble concept. The results also provide insights of how to enhance the facility of overpriced assets studies at non-transparent economies or emerging markets.