We suggest an econometric model of probability of default based on regular financial disclosures of Russian banks. We also suggest a quantization of the continuous explanatory variables that allows to account for non-linear effects and to achieve superior accuracy compared with regression tree and Bayesian network models estimated over the same sample. The econometric estimates of probability of default are broadly consistent with the historical default frequencies of rated obligors and risk-neutral probabilities of default inferred from credit spreads in a reduced-form model.
The article reviews the evolution of credit risk evaluation over the last 50 years from the financial coefficients to the credit ratings. Some related issues are discussed - they are the rating agencies’ activity, the structure of the ratings market, the peculiar properties of international and Russian ratings markets. The types of credit risk modeling researches are classified.
Article proposes comparative studies of credit ratings of the leading Russian and international rating agencies. We analyze approaches and the possibility of comparison of agencies’ rating scales. Purpose of this analysis is to propose method and describe the criteria for comparison of rating scales and the possibility of using standard econometric models. We demonstrate the dynamics and development of rating business in Russia, problems and prospects of creating the unified rating area. A detailed comparative analysis of rating scales is focused on Russian banks. Database for empirical study includes 370 banks with at least one contact rating in the period 2006–2010. Similar research has also been carried out for international banks on the sample of 1995–2010 years. It consists of representatives of more than 80 countries. Conclusions provided for ten most commonly used bank ratings in Russia including scales of largest international rating agencies. Results may be used by regulators and commercial banks as part of the risk management methodologies and tender indicators.
We examine the synergy of the credit rating agencies’ efforts. This question is important not only for regulators, but also for commercial banks if the implementation of the internal ratings and the advanced Basel Approach are discussed. We consider Russian commercial banks as a good example where proposal methods might be used. Firstly, a literature overview was supplemented with an analysis of the activities of rating agencies in Russia. Secondly, we discussed the methods and algorithms of the comparison of rating scales. The optimization task was formulated and the system of rating maps onto the basic scale was obtained. As a result we obtained the possibility of a comparison of different agencies’ ratings. We discussed not only the distance method, but also an econometric approach. The scheme of correspondence for Russian banks is presented and discussed. The third part of the paper presents the results of econometric modeling of the international agencies’ ratings, as well as the probability of default models for Russian banks. The models were obtained from previous papers by the author, but complex discussion and synergy of their systematic exploration were this paper’s achievement. We consider these problems using the example of financial institutions. We discuss the system of models and their implementation for practical applications towards risk management tasks, including those which are based on public information and a remote estimation of ratings. We expect the use of such a systemic approach to risk management in commercial banks as well as in regulatory borders.
Set out the process of preparation and holding of computer modeling of digital devices on-Board equipment of space vehicles. These digital devices are protected from the risk of dielectric printed sites ESD, as a result of internal electrified, high conductivity of a dielectric - nano conductivity. A distinctive feature of the proposed process modeling is the count of nano conductivity dielectric printed sites on the parameters of the digital device.
The aim objective of SMMS2015 is to present the latest research and results of scientists related to Simulation, Modelling and Mathematical Statistics topics. This conference provided opportunities for the different areas delegates to exchange new ideas and application experiences face to face, to establish business or research relations and to find global partners for future collaboration.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.