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Regular version of the site

Article

VAR-подход к оценке эффективности мер фискального стимулирования экономики

Вотинов А. И., Станкевич И. П.

The paper presents a vector autoregression-based approach to evaluation of fiscal measures. Using both structural and bayesian VAR models, we estimate fiscal multipliers of overall government expenditure and its components: national defense, national economy, education and social policy expenditures. Results are checked for robustness using different lag length and model specifications and different sets of hyperparameters in Bayesian VAR case. The results regarding overall expenditures are quite stable across specifications and correspond well with results obtained in previous research in this field. National defense and social policy multipliers are shown to be negative (in contrast to previous research on Russian data), national economy and education expenditures multipliers are positive. Some policy implications are presented.