The paper presents a vector autoregression-based approach to evaluation of fiscal measures. Using both structural and bayesian VAR models, we estimate fiscal multipliers of overall government expenditure and its components: national defense, national economy, education and social policy expenditures. Results are checked for robustness using different lag length and model specifications and different sets of hyperparameters in Bayesian VAR case. The results regarding overall expenditures are quite stable across specifications and correspond well with results obtained in previous research in this field. National defense and social policy multipliers are shown to be negative (in contrast to previous research on Russian data), national economy and education expenditures multipliers are positive. Some policy implications are presented.
The paper introduces the methods of assessing the effects of social assistance on work incentives, using representative Rosstat survey data as illustration. It also demonstrates the key steps of testing the hypothesis of the social benefits effect on work incentives, as well as the need for conducting multi-factor analysis coupled with impact evaluation methods. The key finding from descriptive analysis is that an average household that has recipients of social benefits among its members cannot rely on social benefits as a significant source of means of subsistence, therefore social transfers do not produce a sizeable effect on work behavior. Nevertheless, the authors propose a hypothesis that there are certain groups of social transfers beneficiaries whose work behavior may be strongly affected by social transfers. Firstly, this refers to recipients of social transfers, the size of which is comparable to the anticipated wage size. In such cases, social transfers can produce a negative employment effect. Secondly, this could refer to recipients, whose eligibility to social transfers is related to their belonging to a certain professional group. In this case, in all likelihood, social transfers create economic incentives to stay in these professional groups, reducing labor mobility. The testing and analysis of these hypothesis will be presented in forthcoming papers by the authors.
Nowadays tax incentives are widely used in many countries including Russia. Nevertheless, this tax instrument has a number of significant disadvantages. Firstly, they decrease budget revenues, and at the same time the efficiency of tax incentives usually is not estimated and seems to be not positive. Secondly, a lot of tax incentives can be replaced by more comfortable types of direct expenditures. Finally, as a rule, from an equity standpoint tax exemption is not a good, as recipients of tax exemption are usually wealthy people. This paper discusses main theoretical aspects of tax incentives (with focus on personal income taxation), provides a review of the world taxation practices and analyzes the tax exemptions in Russia. The results of analyses allow to outline the recommendations intended to improve the personal income taxation.
Innovative financial services foster both financial and real sector development. The research paper introduces multiperiod model of financial innovations, based on Harold Hotelling’s approach (model of a linear city). This model allows to identify factors incentivizing banks for creation new quality services and to comprehend what consumer groups are able to enhance innovative activity of banks.
The article analyzes the legal regulation of the procurement and budgetary process by the example of procurement standardization and reviews the implementation of public procurement standardization as well as its integration with the budgetary process. Definitions of the procurement standardization and standard costs are given by the author. The article presents recommendations to State authorities at the Federal level for preparation of their own acts and examples of standard costs calculation.
Fiscal (budget) transparency is a concept that was developed in the 1990s and became particularly relevant in times of financial crisis. Recent studies show that improving transparency results in better budget performance, lower borrowing costs and reduced corruption. This review describes the main approaches used in budget transparency evaluation and is addressed to practitioners and researchers dealing with budget transparency.
The article analyzes the foreign experience of increase in the retirement age. The authors investigate the boundaries and rates of increase in the retirement age, taking into account different, such as life expectancy (including life expectancy of persons older the retirement age), the requirements for the length of service and the availability of early retirement opportunities. The article gives an actuarial estimation of economic effects of raising the retirement age in relation to Russian conditions. It is shown that raising of the retirement age makes it possible to achieve a long-term pension system balance with the increase in pensions in real terms.
The purpose of this article is to analyze financing of educational institutions based on per capita standards and to identify various approaches to determination of standard costs for public (municipal) services provision. Based on the legislative and normative frameworks of the Russian Federation subjects, as of May 2017, the authors identified three main approaches at the regional level to determination of the standard costs structure, depending on the distribution of the costs’ elements for general economic needs. The results of the research showed that, despite another Russia’s demand to oblige regions to apply per capita standards for determination of the subsidy amount for public (municipal) assignment fulfillment, it was not accomplished in all constituent entities of the country. In some cases, relative statutory and regulatory enactments imply the use of per capita standards and standard costs, but in reality, the calculations for financing receiving are based on actual expenditures.
There is an evidence that today health spending efficiency in Russia is low: comparing Russia to foreign countries shows that, considering current expenditures, a number of medico-social variables reflecting healthcare effectiveness, e.g. life expectancy, mortality and equity in access to healthcare, can be improved. The article examines causes that deteriorate health spending efficiency: imbalance in Program of state guarantees in health, structural disproportion in health spending sources, the lack of universal outpatient drug provision program and inadequate motivation of health professionals. The authors also examined possible measures aiming to solve stated problems.
The article addresses the issue of official development aid in the EAEU, which is rarely tackled in the Russian academic literature despite geopolitical and economic importance of the union for Russia. Based on the OECD DAC data from 1992 to 2017 article analyses volumes of ODA in the EAEU and its breakdown by recipients, donors, instruments and channels, and compares EAEU structure with the global structure. Furthermore, this article discusses directions of aid and their correspondence with EAEU recipient countries’ (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan) priorities. It concludes that, first, in Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan ODA corresponds with their strategic priorities and second, that in more developed EAEU recipient countries (Kazakhstan and Belarus) areas, where ODA might be of practical value for the solving of global problems, are infrastructure and climate change. The author also presents classification of donor countries on the base of donor motives and position of EAEU donor countries in it (Russia and Kazakhstan), as well as effectiveness of aid from the donor’s point of view. Based on the conducted analysis author provides priority recommendations on improvement of ODA efficiency in EAEU, including streamlining of Russia’s ODA and development of sectoral and geographic priorities.
The paper contrasts the drivers of mergers and acquisitions in Russia and other countries. Using the results of CEO surveys and surveys of the participants of the M&A markets in Russia and globally, the author compares the most prevalent strategies for company growth and restructuring. The paper points to economic evidence that insufficient development of competition and various issues in corporate finance may be linked to a relatively low predominance of M&A deals in Russia. In particular, this relates to the lack of deals, aimed at acquiring assets of the target. At the same time, the data for the Russian M&A market in 2014–2018 indicates relatively high competition in the information technology, and a growth in the number and the total value of M&A deals in this sector. Additionally, the overall Russian M&A market demonstrates a decrease in the average deal value, and there is a steady fall in the share of the oil and gas sector.