### Article

## Большие группы экспертов и консенсус в ТК по стандартизации

The problem of studying the consensus of achievement in the work of technical committeesfor standartization is assosiated with a difficalty of organizing such as study, especially for groups of five members and more.It is useful to study the phenomenon of consensus in TC using the cellular automaton model.

*If you want to make beautiful music, *

*you must play the black and the white notes together*.

Richard M. Nixon, the 37th President of USA

The problem of studying the achievement of consensus in social groups is related to the complexity of organizing such a study, especially for large groups, with more than five participants. In connection with the above, it is advisable to investigate the phenomenon of consensus in large social groups, using the modeling methodology.

The article presents the results of statistical modeling describing the dependence of the time to reach consensus on the number and authoritarianism of a social group members using two mathematical models of consensus achievement in a group based on the model proposed by DeGroot and model of the cellular automaton.

The main problems of attaining consensus under the settings of the proposed model during the development of consensus standards in technical committees on standardization were analyzed. It is shown that an increase in the number of social group members and their authoritarianism has an adverse impact on the time for reaching consensus and increases the disunity of the group.

A model of the cellular automaton modeling the achievement of consensus within the negotiation process has been were studied: the initial discrepancy between the opinions of the members of the group and the space of opinions of the members of the group. In particular, it is shown that if initially the views of the members of the group are radically different, then the process of reaching consensus will be as long as possible if one of the participants is absolutely authoritative. If initially the views of the members of the group are close, then the process of reaching consensus will also be as long as possible if both members of the group are absolutely compromise.

The paper studies the problem of achieving consensus in multi-agent systems in the case where the dependency digraph Γ has no spanning in-tree. We consider the regularization protocol that amounts to the addition of a dummy agent (*hub*) uniformly connected to the agents. The presence of such a hub guarantees the achievement of an asymptotic consensus. For the “evaporation” of the dummy agent, the strength of its influences on the other agents vanishes, which leads to the concept of *latent consensus*. We obtain a closed-form expression for the consensus when the connections of the hub are symmetric; in this case, the impact of the hub upon the consensus remains fixed. On the other hand, if the hub is essentially influenced by the agents, whereas its influence on them tends to zero, then the consensus is expressed by the scalar product of the vector of column means of the Laplacian eigenprojection of Γ and the initial state vector of the system. Another protocol, which assumes the presence of vanishingly weak uniform background links between the agents, leads to the same latent consensus.

*If you want to make beautiful music, *

*you must play the black and the white notes together*.

Richard M. Nixon, the 37th President of USA

The problem of studying the achievement of consensus in social groups is related to the complexity of organizing such a study, especially for large groups, with more than five participants. In connection with the above, it is advisable to investigate the phenomenon of consensus in large social groups, using the modeling methodology.

The article presents the results of statistical modeling describing the dependence of the time to reach consensus on the number and authoritarianism of a social group members using two mathematical models of consensus achievement in a group based on the model proposed by DeGroot and model of the cellular automaton.

The main problems of attaining consensus under the settings of the proposed model during the development of consensus standards in technical committees on standardization were analyzed. It is shown that an increase in the number of social group members and their authoritarianism has an adverse impact on the time for reaching consensus and increases the disunity of the group.

A model of the cellular automaton modeling the achievement of consensus within the negotiation process has been were studied: the initial discrepancy between the opinions of the members of the group and the space of opinions of the members of the group. In particular, it is shown that if initially the views of the members of the group are radically different, then the process of reaching consensus will be as long as possible if one of the participants is absolutely authoritative. If initially the views of the members of the group are close, then the process of reaching consensus will also be as long as possible if both members of the group are absolutely compromise.

This article in the context of the issues settled is an attempt to consider the experience of creation and realization critically of a two-leveled development strategy of Nizhny Novgorod region from 2005 to 2015. It shows how taking into account the open participative project technologies and selecting of the groups of the stakeholders one could reach the consolidation of a conflicting society around the same objective in the desirable Future, and also gives the retrospective estimation of efficiency of the approach accepted and considers the perspectives of its use in the future

This proceedings publication is a compilation of selected contributions from the “Third International Conference on the Dynamics of Information Systems” which took place at the University of Florida, Gainesville, February 16–18, 2011. The purpose of this conference was to bring together scientists and engineers from industry, government, and academia in order to exchange new discoveries and results in a broad range of topics relevant to the theory and practice of dynamics of information systems. Dynamics of Information Systems: Mathematical Foundation presents state-of-the art research and is intended for graduate students and researchers interested in some of the most recent discoveries in information theory and dynamical systems. Scientists in other disciplines may also benefit from the applications of new developments to their own area of study.

A model for organizing cargo transportation between two node stations connected by a railway line which contains a certain number of intermediate stations is considered. The movement of cargo is in one direction. Such a situation may occur, for example, if one of the node stations is located in a region which produce raw material for manufacturing industry located in another region, and there is another node station. The organization of freight traﬃc is performed by means of a number of technologies. These technologies determine the rules for taking on cargo at the initial node station, the rules of interaction between neighboring stations, as well as the rule of distribution of cargo to the ﬁnal node stations. The process of cargo transportation is followed by the set rule of control. For such a model, one must determine possible modes of cargo transportation and describe their properties. This model is described by a ﬁnite-dimensional system of diﬀerential equations with nonlocal linear restrictions. The class of the solution satisfying nonlocal linear restrictions is extremely narrow. It results in the need for the “correct” extension of solutions of a system of diﬀerential equations to a class of quasi-solutions having the distinctive feature of gaps in a countable number of points. It was possible numerically using the Runge–Kutta method of the fourth order to build these quasi-solutions and determine their rate of growth. Let us note that in the technical plan the main complexity consisted in obtaining quasi-solutions satisfying the nonlocal linear restrictions. Furthermore, we investigated the dependence of quasi-solutions and, in particular, sizes of gaps (jumps) of solutions on a number of parameters of the model characterizing a rule of control, technologies for transportation of cargo and intensity of giving of cargo on a node station.

A form for an unbiased estimate of the coefficient of determination of a linear regression model is obtained. It is calculated by using a sample from a multivariate normal distribution. This estimate is proposed as an alternative criterion for a choice of regression factors.