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Regular version of the site

Article

Туманное будущее российской экономики

Идеи и идеалы. 2017. Т. 1. № 1. С. 46-67.
Карева Д. Е., Шмат В. В.

The authors present initial results of a study dealing with the scenario forecasting of the Russian economy development in its uncertainty and ambiguity. The Russia’s future now looks very “nebulous” because of the large number of less predictable foreign economic and political risks. But the main factor of uncertainty, which can be characterized as the fundamental, i.e., excluding the possibility of a correct conversion to the risk situation, springs from the well-established resource dependence of the Russian economy over the past half-century. The peculiarity of the study is related to the application of expert-statistical Bayesian method based on non-formalized source of information by the method of peer reviews. The direct object of the study is to evaluate the probability of the basic scenario of the Russian economy in the long term and in a broader sense it solves a problem of identifying the conditions, which will be required for the realization of favorable scenarios and will be able to prevent adverse ones. According to the results of the two phases of the study conducted in 2014 and 2015, most experts appreciate the likelihood of further development of the country on the way of creating a “resource superpower” with the risk of fi nding itself on the “periphery of the world”, because there is the slightest difference between the two scenarios. Trying to build a “resource superpower” without precisely formulated transparent terms and conditions, we may not cope with the threats and challenges and become a raw material appendage of the “world-economy”.