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Article

Профессиональная структура рабочей силы в странах Европы: о чем свидетельствуют прогнозы?

The paper analyzes the future occupational structure of labour force in OECD European countries. Occupational structure forecasts allow researchers to evaluate the quality of job openings and, consequently, the overall future labor market performance. Identification of features of demand for certain occupations in Europe can also help to understand whether the processes occurring on the Russian labour market are consistent with the global trends. The paper discusses the methodology of labour force forecasting and basic research approaches to the prediction of occupational structure changes. It emphasizes the issue of the dynamics of demand for representatives of certain occupations in Europe by distinguishing fastest growing occupations and fastest declining occupations together with possible reasons for the changes in demand for them. The paper demonstrates that the main occupational trend over the next decade will consists in the increasing importance of professionals, as well as technicians and associate professionals. The increase in the demand for health professionals and representatives of occupations providing scientific and technological breakthrough, will be most significant. At the same time it is expected that the demand for elementary occupations will also rise. This process will evolve simultaneously with the decrease in the total amount of skilled and semi-skilled blue-collar occupations which happens due to the globalization and the reduction of industrial production in the developed economies. The ongoing "mechanization" of many job functions still can’t eliminate the need for such occupations as cleaners, laborers, domestic servants, personal workers etc. The presence of these jobs allow employees with low levels of education remain in the labor market and thus not to depend on the social benefit system. Another tendency for all countries with developed economies will be connected to the reduction of demand for many white collar occupations. This comes as a result of a further spread of modern computer technologies and automation of many routine functions previously performed by office workers.