A Dynamic and Adaptive Scenario Approach for Formulating Science and Technology Policy

Foresight. 2017. Vol. 19. No. 5. P. 473–490.

Saritas O., Dranev Y., Chulok A.A.

Purpose

Dynamic changes in the world bring challenges for making long-term future-oriented policy and strategy. A number of recent developments like drops in oil prices, increasing global conflicts, mass immigration, and economic stagnation have had disruptive effects on long-term policies and strategies. This new fast-changing landscape requires approaches and tools, which may help to practice adaptive Foresight for a dynamically changing context.Design/methodology/approach

 

The scenario approach presented in the paper aims to develop and multiple time horizons by bringing together short-term forecasts and long-term exploratory and visionary scenarios. Each time horizon allows for re-considering and dynamically changing drivers and assumptions of scenarios and thus builds not a single linear, but multiple and dynamic pathways into the future. Following the presentation on the background and description of the methodology, the paper illustrates the proposed approach with a case study on Science and Technology (S&T) development in Russia.

Findings  

The flexible scenario approach allows developing and strategies with similar adaptability and flexibility. Practical implications: The scenario approach presented in the paper may be applicable for foresight exercises at all levels of governance including national and international, regional, and corporate.

Practical implications  

The scenario approach presented in the paper may be applicable for foresight exercises at all levels of governance including national and international, regional, and corporate.

Originality/value  

A novel scenario approach is presented for the formulation of Science and Technology policy with an illustrative case study.

Purpose: Dynamic changes in the world bring challenges for making long-term future-oriented policy and strategy. A number of recent developments like drops in oil prices, increasing global conflicts, mass immigration, and economic stagnation have had disruptive effects on long-term policies and strategies. This new fast-changing landscape requires approaches and tools, which may help to practice adaptive Foresight for a dynamically changing context.

Design/methodology/approach: The scenario approach presented in the paper aims to develop and multiple time horizons by bringing together short-term forecasts and long-term exploratory and visionary scenarios. Each time horizon allows for re-considering and dynamically changing drivers and assumptions of scenarios and thus builds not a single linear, but multiple and dynamic pathways into the future. Following the presentation on the background and description of the methodology, the paper illustrates the proposed approach with a case study on Science and Technology (S&T) development in Russia.

Findings: The flexible scenario approach allows developing and strategies with similar adaptability and flexibility.

Practical implications: The scenario approach presented in the paper may be applicable for foresight exercises at all levels of governance including national and international, regional, and corporate. 

Practical implications: The scenario approach presented in the paper may be applicable for foresight exercises at all levels of governance including national and international, regional, and corporate. Originality/value: A novel scenario approach is presented for the formulation of Science and Technology policy with an illustrative case study.

Keywords: форсайт, научно-техническая политика, forecasting, прогнозирование, сценарное планирование, science and technology policy, scenario planning, Foresight