Предпочтения кредиторов в ходе банкротства: формальное банкротство или реструктуризация (пример компании «Трансаэро»)
This article is a case study of the bankruptcy of the Russian passenger aviation company “Transaero” that took place in 2015 aimed to reveal the preferences of creditors of financially distressed companies between formal bankruptcy and restructuring. We tested the hypothesis that the creditors of Transaero have chosen its bankruptcy because its liquidation value was significantly higher than its going concern value. Firstly we derived the equations of the market value of civil airplanes by plane type depending on their age based on the information gathered from the announcements of the plane sales. At the next step we calculated the market value of Transaero’s fleet. According to our estimate the liquation of the company will lead to the 75% debt recovery for its debt holders. Then we modelled the hypothetic restructuring that included asset sales and return of a number of planes in financial lease to the leasing companies, and in total we got rid of 35 planes. This restricting could bring the debt down by 22% but under no future cash flow scenario the company would be able to serve its debt. The enterprise value of Transaero as a going concern is less than its liquidation value and the value of its equity is negative. The future cash flow to the firm is less than annuity payments needed to serve and to pay out debt. In case of restructuring the losses of creditors would have been in the range of 60% to 78%. Thus, we concluded that the choice of the creditors was rational.