Моделирование программ развития с вероятностными параметрами и неявными экономическими выгодами
The paper focuses on analyzing development programs for complex organizational and technical systems. Such programs comprise projects and program events linked with each other by relations of precedence. The programs exert influence on maturity of managed objects and have certain financial consequences. Distinctive features of such programs include impossibility of assessment of their results in financial terms, as well as availability of stochastic characteristics. Stochastic nature of key parameters of development programs (projects durations, time lags between projects and events, power of impact on maturity and financial metrics) makes it possible to apply discrete-event modeling. Special attention is paid on complicated projects of three types: with uncertain outcome, with possibility of reimplementation and with few variants of implementation. As a modeling tool, timed stochastic Petri nets with certain attributes of places, transitions and arcs are applied. Different time lags are described by the means of holding durations assigned to the arcs. For complicated projects, special routing policies allowing stochastic selection of firing transitions are used. The modeling approach allows analyzing consequences of potential development programs, including both their effects and related expenditures. In turn, the modeling results help to justify decisions regarding comparison of alternative development programs and selection of one of them for implementation.