Влияние ключевых макроэкономических шоков на инвестиции в России
Sustainable reduction of investment in the Russian economy, observed since 2013, has become one of the most discussed issues. The aim of this work is to examine the contribution of several structural shocks to the dynamics of investment in 2003-2016. We want to consider the relationship between investment, GDP, domestic loans to non-financial corporations, the interest rate on these loans, external debt of Russian companies and the nominal exchange rate within the framework of sign restricted SVAR. In this work, four shocks are explored: terms of trade shock, shock of foreign funding (access to global capital markets), monetary policy shock and fiscal policy shock (public investment expenditures). The main results are as follows. External shocks dominate the dynamics of the Russian investment, and this applies not only to the terms of trade shock, but also to the shock of foreign funding availability. The sharp decline in access to it after the introduction of sanctions against Russia in 2014 had great negative impact on investments. In addition, the model estimates the role of monetary policy in 2015 as negative-neutral (thus offering an argument in favor of its easing), but at the same time rather insignificant. On the basis of our results we conclude that operational measures of economic policy are unlikely to crucially change the situation for the better. Removal of economic sanctions against Russia could promote investment, but only in the short-term period. In the long run reforms aimed at ridding the economy of such a high dependence on external factors are necessary.
This volume examines the complex international system of the twenty first century from a variety of perspectives. Proceeding from critical theoretical perspectives and incorporating case studies, the chapters focus on broad trends as well as micro-realities of a Post-Westphalian international system. The process of transformation and change of the international system has been an ongoing cumulative process. Many forces including conflict, technological innovation, and communication have contributed to the creation of a transnational world with political, economic, and social implications for all societies. Transnationalism functions both as an integrative factor and one which exposes the existing and the newly emerging divisions between societies and cultures and between nations and states. The chapters in this volume demonstrate that re-thinking fundamental assumptions as well as theoretical and methodological premises is central to understanding the dynamics of interdependence.
State Capitalism could be characterized by a triple role of the state: the state performs as a “programmer” to guide economic activity; it acts as a “protector” to safeguard national economic interests; and it also plays the role as a “producer” to create national wealth through its state-owned enterprises (SOEs). However, the influences of State Capitalism in a country are not only limited to the domestic sphere. They often extend internationally, either through the globalization of SOEs, or through Sovereign Fund investments, or by means of other influences. Many recent acquisition projects by SOEs, often in strategic sectors, highlight the importance of understanding this new geopolitical investment which has created special relations between State Capitalism and the free market. They also raise the question of the need for updating national economic security concerns in the context of globalization. As the value of Sovereign Funds reaches several trillion dollars, the controversy surrounding these Funds is evolving. For many, these Funds do not necessarily always look for maximizing business performance, but are sometimes also accompanied by political and strategic ambitions of the respective states from where they originate. The phenomenon of State Capitalism has gained prominence in recent years especially in several emerging markets. It appeared, firstly, because of multiple government interventions in the economy,and secondly, emphasis given to the globalization of their SOEs / economic organizations in international markets (China, Russia, Brazil, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, India, Korea, etc.). In January 2012, The Economist published another special article on State Capitalism and wondered if the new balance of power that is being built-up with the emergence of market oriented SOEs will pose a challenge to the liberal capitalist model. The objectives of this conference are manifold: to examine the characteristics of State Capitalism in the world economy, especially in emerging countries, to assess its real impact on economic development, to identify its scope to other developing countries, and also to explore the major challenges that it poses to the liberal capitalist model in the world of free-markets.
> Georgia. Georgia's $16 bln economy saw strong annual growth in 2010-12 of around 6-7%, but in 2013 growth slowed to 3.2%, which is still good but not enough for an economy with a GDP per capita of around $3,600. Indeed, over the year, Georgia - which depends heavily on capital inflows - failed to utilize its competitive advantage of lower unit labor costs than in other countries in the region, such as Turkey and Bulgaria. > Turkey. The Turkish economy performed well in 1H14 as industrial output rose 3.8% y-o-y (down from 5.3% y-o-y in 5m14). GDP climbed 4.3% y-o-y in 1Q14, and we estimate 2Q14 to show GDP growth just below 4.0%. We expect 3.7% for 2014 as a whole, which is a bit stronger than we expected early in the year. > Bulgaria. Similar to some other smaller economies in the region, Bulgaria benefited from a recovery in the Eurozone that was characterized by ECB President Mario Draghi on August 7 as "moderate and uneven." Bulgarian GDP picked up to around 1.4% y-o-y in 1H14 (1.2% in 1Q14 and 1.6% in 2Q14). Given that Bulgaria's currency is pegged to the euro, the country was unable to extract benefits from this recovery to the same extent as some other countries, such as Turkey, Hungary or Romania, whose monetary policy and exchange rates are more independent. In 2H14, Bulgaria will face additional pressure from potentially slower growth in the EU as policy makers in the West and Russia continue experiments with sanctions.
The author analyzes the decision of the President of the country on necessity of removal of state officials from committees of directors of the largest state companies, its pluses and minuses, and appreciates an investment climate in the country which unsatisfactory condition seriously anxious the country leaders.
In accordance with the international investment legislation, a state is entitled to implement expropriation and nationalization measures with respect to foreign investments within its territory on condition of guaranteed prompt, efficient and adequate compensation provision in favor of investors. The article notes that there is no clear description of the phenomenon of foreign investors' property alienation in the Russian or world practice. Consideration is given to the types of expropriation: direct, aimed at deprivation of property rights for investments by authorities; indirect, or "creeping" expropriation representing gradual divestiture; and measures that are equivalent to expropriation and inhibit receipts of investment benefits. It is underscored that in the process of investment evaluation it is necessary to take into consideration the degree of intervention in property rights, intentions of the government, and the impossibility to discharge adequate investors' expectations.
The article considers the problems of realization of the large projects related to creation of transport-logistics centers (TLC) and other objects of logistics infrastructure with application of the state and private partnership (SPP) mechanism. The foreign experience , possible forms and models of SPP application, requirements for parameters and terms of private capital investment into the project of TLC establishment, primary obligations and rights of SPP participants are analyzed. Profound consideration is given to the risks arisen in the process of TLC creation, to the problems of their limitations and distribution among the partners, to achievement of the highest synergetic effect from creation of TLC.
The article describes the methods of economic evaluation of innovative projects. The special attention is given to the positive and negative sides of the static evaluation methods and techniques with the flexibility that is built into the project. Keywords: discounted cash flow, real options and innovations.
In the article we study the reasons and character of economic growth in Russia in the beginning of the XXI-st century. The analysis of the features of economic development is a key to understanding of depth of modern crisis in Russia. This article exhibits institutional preconditions for an overcoming the crisis and acceleration of economic growth.
The paper consists of three main sections. The first is devoted to a discussion of the "state capitalism" concept and the reasons for the growing interest to this phenomenon. It is proposed here to consider the state capitalism not only in terms of the state ownership in major national industrial enterprises and banks, but also taking into account the efficiency of SOEs. In the second section, the new data on the state involvement in the Russian economy are represented, including the shares of the state in the authorized capital of the largest industrial enterprises and banks. Their economic indicators are compared. Contrary to some assumptions P / E values for national champions are lagging behind the average for emerging markets. The third section examines the hypothesis that one of the major challenges faced by the state capitalism is the development of investment incentives for SOEs and their performance. It is shown that the interests of the state as an owner of business enterprises are often in conflict with the interests of the state as a social institution. A number of examples are demonstrated. In order to solve this problem the state should reduce its stakes in SOEs except for those that are of strategic importance. The output of the analysis is that the state capitalism as a social phenomenon has no a long-term perspective. Most of so called “state capitalist” countries will take in future the path of traditional mixed market economy.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.