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Налоговая реформа Д. Трампа: экономические и социальные аспекты
Abstract
High corporate tax rates made the United States uncompetitive in raising capital compared to other developed economies in the world, which was the main prerequisite for the tax reform initiated by the President D. Trump in 2017, which was aimed at improving the investment attractiveness of US corporations and, as a consequence, stimulating the GDP growth. The study and forecasting of the impact of these transformations on the US economy is of interest due to the possible both positive and negative effects of the changes that have been made.
Objective The determination of the relationship between the total volume of tax revenues to the state budget and the growth of US GDP in the long run.
Subject Tax reform of 2017 initiated by D.Trump.
Methods To identify the impact of the tax reform on the investment climate in the country and the subsequent GDP growth, a hypothesis was formulated and a regression model was proposed. The statistical sample was quarterly data from 04.01.1960 to 07.01.2019 published by the financial departments of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The implementation of the study is based on an econometric analysis, which made it possible to identify the impact of the volume of tax revenues from corporate income tax and individual income taxes on the level of US GDP.
Results and conclusions The results of the study indicate that in the short term there is a decrease in tax revenues and a subsequent increase in the budget deficit, in the long term - an increase in business activity in the country, an increase in foreign direct investment, and, consequently, an increase in the GDP of the state. The scientific novelty lies in the fact that the work proposed a model for assessing the economic growth of US GDP, in which tax predictors were used in combination with macroeconomic indicators. The experience of the United States and the results of this study may be used by governments of developing countries and experts in the field of taxation to develop tax policies.