Система прогнозирования динамики добычи нефти с использованием имитационного моделирования
This article presents an original information-analytical system developed using parametric approximation and simulation techniques and designed for scenario forecasting the dynamics of oil production in wells. This system is implemented as a software, the core of which is a simulation model developed in an IDE AnyLogic, integrated with a database and describes the dynamics of production at each well, taking into account implemented and planned geological and technical measures (GTM). A prototype system has been successfully implemented in Russia's largest oil company and used to predict the incremental oil production around the pool of all existing wells (more than 100,000 wells in the ten-year time frame), as well as assessing the potential effect of GTM for subsequent reallocation of resources between wells.
This article describes optimization of a multimodal passenger traffic system. The optimization method used is simulation modeling. The service level indicators, costs and financial indicators when changing configurations of the system are analyzed.
The importance of strategic management today is unquestionable. However, when strategizing the organization is often regarded as a single whole, differences in aims and areas of operation of its parts not being considered. This approach works for many organizations, but in the case of a distributed structure its parts may function in the markets which have different requirements, competition intensity and qualification of consumers. Besides, the departments of that organization may have different levels of development. In our present work we do not consider the whole range of distributed organizations, but concentrate on universities, as they have common characteristics with commercial organizations and, at the same time, are very specific in their rules and areas of development. We focus on developing a new modeling method for decision support while designing a balanced hierarchical strategy for distributed universities. This implies beginning from the strategy for the whole organization and moving on to development of individual strategies for its departments. Thus, the proposed method contains two parts: a sub-method to develop departmental strategies and a sub-method to calculate interaction among departments.
This article describes the proposed structure and semantics of the model which can be used in the both of sub-methods.
The purpose of developing a cognitive model has been defined as the construction and analysis of simulation models improve interaction between government and business. In line with this objective has been hypothesized that an increase in the efficiency of interaction between business and government increased the values of competition in politics and economics, which in turn are directly related to each other. The latter is not in doubt, since the state of competition in the economy is inextricably linked to the legislative machinery of antitrust restrictions, by which representative bodies suppress or support unfair competition.
Authors provide the substantiation of logistic profitability indicator introduction for problem-solving concern the evaluation of logistic system performance, incl. inventory management system.
A model for organizing cargo transportation between two node stations connected by a railway line which contains a certain number of intermediate stations is considered. The movement of cargo is in one direction. Such a situation may occur, for example, if one of the node stations is located in a region which produce raw material for manufacturing industry located in another region, and there is another node station. The organization of freight traﬃc is performed by means of a number of technologies. These technologies determine the rules for taking on cargo at the initial node station, the rules of interaction between neighboring stations, as well as the rule of distribution of cargo to the ﬁnal node stations. The process of cargo transportation is followed by the set rule of control. For such a model, one must determine possible modes of cargo transportation and describe their properties. This model is described by a ﬁnite-dimensional system of diﬀerential equations with nonlocal linear restrictions. The class of the solution satisfying nonlocal linear restrictions is extremely narrow. It results in the need for the “correct” extension of solutions of a system of diﬀerential equations to a class of quasi-solutions having the distinctive feature of gaps in a countable number of points. It was possible numerically using the Runge–Kutta method of the fourth order to build these quasi-solutions and determine their rate of growth. Let us note that in the technical plan the main complexity consisted in obtaining quasi-solutions satisfying the nonlocal linear restrictions. Furthermore, we investigated the dependence of quasi-solutions and, in particular, sizes of gaps (jumps) of solutions on a number of parameters of the model characterizing a rule of control, technologies for transportation of cargo and intensity of giving of cargo on a node station.
Event logs collected by modern information and technical systems usually contain enough data for automated process models discovery. A variety of algorithms was developed for process models discovery, conformance checking, log to model alignment, comparison of process models, etc., nevertheless a quick analysis of ad-hoc selected parts of a journal still have not get a full-fledged implementation. This paper describes an ROLAP-based method of multidimensional event logs storage for process mining. The result of the analysis of the journal is visualized as directed graph representing the union of all possible event sequences, ranked by their occurrence probability. Our implementation allows the analyst to discover process models for sublogs defined by ad-hoc selection of criteria and value of occurrence probability
The geographic information system (GIS) is based on the first and only Russian Imperial Census of 1897 and the First All-Union Census of the Soviet Union of 1926. The GIS features vector data (shapefiles) of allprovinces of the two states. For the 1897 census, there is information about linguistic, religious, and social estate groups. The part based on the 1926 census features nationality. Both shapefiles include information on gender, rural and urban population. The GIS allows for producing any necessary maps for individual studies of the period which require the administrative boundaries and demographic information.
Existing approaches suggest that IT strategy should be a reflection of business strategy. However, actually organisations do not often follow business strategy even if it is formally declared. In these conditions, IT strategy can be viewed not as a plan, but as an organisational shared view on the role of information systems. This approach generally reflects only a top-down perspective of IT strategy. So, it can be supplemented by a strategic behaviour pattern (i.e., more or less standard response to a changes that is formed as result of previous experience) to implement bottom-up approach. Two components that can help to establish effective reaction regarding new initiatives in IT are proposed here: model of IT-related decision making, and efficiency measurement metric to estimate maturity of business processes and appropriate IT. Usage of proposed tools is demonstrated in practical cases.
The manual is intended for students of Department of computer engineering MIEM HSE. In the textbook based on the courses "Economics of firm" and "the development strategy of the organization." Discusses the key conceptual and methodological issues of the theory and practice of Economics and development planning of the organization. The use of textbooks will enable students: to analyze key performance indicators, and use the tools of strategic analysis with reference to concrete situations in contemporary Russian and international business. Special attention is paid to the methods and systems of information support of the life support functions of business organizations and management methodology of innovation and investment. An Appendix contains source data for analysis of competition in a particular industry.
The paper provides a number of proposed draft operational guidelines for technology measurement and includes a number of tentative technology definitions to be used for statistical purposes, principles for identification and classification of potentially growing technology areas, suggestions on the survey strategies and indicators. These are the key components of an internationally harmonized framework for collecting and interpreting technology data that would need to be further developed through a broader consultation process. A summary of definitions of technology already available in OECD manuals and the stocktaking results are provided in the Annex section.
Over the last two decades national policy makers drew special attention to the implementation of policy tools which foster international cooperation in the fields of science, technology, and innovation. In this paper, we look at cases of Russian-German collaboration to examine the initiatives of the Russian government aimed at stimulating the innovation activity of domestic corporations and small and medium enterprises. The data derived from the interviews with companies’ leaders show positive effects of bilateral innovative projects on the overall business performance alongside with major barriers hindering international cooperation. To overcome these barriers we provide specific suggestions relevant to the recently developed Russian Innovation Strategy 2020.