Экспортный потенциал российской автомобильной промышленности: оценка направлений и объемов
Automotive industry is among the top priorities in Russia from the perspective of non-oil export development. It appears to be very timely to evaluate its export potential due to a significant contraction of the Russian car market and excessive idle capacity of the industry. The paper is based on international Export Decision Support Models and on the analysis of a vast amount of international economic indicators. It aims to identify the most attractive countries for Russia’s passenger automobiles and trucks exports and evaluate the potential increases in absolute physical amounts of export. The three-stage procedure is eliminated unattractive markets. The first stage filter is to remove from consideration countries with high political and commercial risk and with low macroeconomic size. The second filter is for export opportunity assessment. And the third filter describes the level of availability from the point of view of logistics costs and trade barrier. 17 countries failed the screening were enrolled the list due to potentially promising markets for Russian products. Then the total export potential was calculated on the base of Russian potential share in a particular country import calculated on the bases of index trade availability and the average price of a car imported to each country. As a result, top-5 countries for Russian cars and trucks exports are found, and aggregate export potential is estimated at 194 thousand passenger vehicles and 30 thousand trucks per year for the next few years.
Changchun Automobile Plant No. 1 is known as the cradle of China's automobile industry. It was the first automobile plant in the People's Republic of China, which became the foundation for the car industry in the country. The scope of work was so great that 26 Soviet design organizations and about 200 Soviet plants and factories were involved in the construction of the first car factory. Specialists from the USSR participated in the whole process of building an automobile plant. Plots for the plant were chosen, all facilities were designed, Soviet production technologies, modern equipment, etc. were transferred. About 200 highly qualified specialists of the Moscow Automobile Plant named after Stalin were sent on a business trip to China. Today, FAW (First Automotive Works), established on the basis of "Auto Plant No. 1", is the largest industrial group in China for the production of cars and other equipment. The article deals with the information from Chinese sources, memories of the participants of the events, focuses on the role of individuals in the construction of one of the largest industrial enterprises of the Northeast of China.
The article compares the entry strategies of transnational corporations (TNCs) to the automobile markets of Russia and China in the context of approaches by J. Dunning and P. Buckley. The results of comparison reveal that TNCs mainly have a form of their own production in Russia, while in China they have a form of joint ventures with local companies. The model that best describes the methods used by TNCs to enter the considered markets should be a synthesis of models by J. Dunning and P. Buckley.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.