The Ukraine conflict, economic-military power balances, and economic sanctions: lessons from the past for future EU policies
This analysis begins by identifying lessons for the understanding of the conflict in Ukraine and contemporary economic sanctions from the histories of the dynamics of economic and military power balances in Europe leading up to 2013 and of Western economic warfare directed against the USSR. It evaluates a number of empirical issues, such as the impacts of sanctions on the economy of Russia, and then provides brief answers to three key questions related to EU policymaking in 2015: (1) How generously should the EU support the reform and recovery of the Ukraine economy?; (2) Should the EU de-couple its policies concerning anti-Russia economic sanctions from those of the US?; and (3) Should the EU countries discourage NATO from providing military assistance to the armed forces of Ukraine?