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  • К вопросу о прогнозировании состоятельности и вероятности банкротства предприятий малого и среднего бизнеса

Article

К вопросу о прогнозировании состоятельности и вероятности банкротства предприятий малого и среднего бизнеса

Большакова О. Е., Максимов А. Г., Максимова Н. В.

Importance  In the proposed article the diagnostics of the financial state of SMEs is considered Objectives  Building and improving solvency diagnostic models and forecasting bankruptcy risk of the SMEs

Methods Using econometric tools a series of logit models are designed and evaluated. The factors (indicators) that are included in the estimated models, was selected consider the following information: frequency of mention of the authors of Russian and foreign methods of risk assessment of bankruptcy, the availability of data, the ability to qualitatively describe the main components of the company's financial condition, informativeness, and others, as well as a set of economic-statistical methods. There are, for example, the algorithms of factor analysis, stepwise selection methods, VIF-factor analysis, and others. Classification characteristics of the models tested in the "training set", taking into account the area under the ROC-curve analysis and error types I and II

Results Consideration industry classification SME objects (and the "sector-specific" structure of balance sheet), development and inclusion (in the models) the  parameters that characterize the enterprise resource planning (including estimation of technological efficiency by stochastic frontier analysis), improve the quality of models. The constructed models have good classification properties and predictive power

Conclusions and Relevance Using the proposed models for the diagnosis of the SMEs allows to identify the "problem" enterprise and to diagnose the probability of their bankruptcy, it would be useful for business owner, for creditors of the company and its external counterparties, for the judicial in deciding about the opening of bankruptcy proceedings