More money — more births? Estimating effects of 2007 family policy changes on probability of second and subsequent births in Russia
From 2007 to 2014 total fertility rate in Russia increased from 1.42 to 1.75, following a long period of decline in 1990-1999 and stagnation in 2000-2006. In 2007 the new measures of national family policy were introduced. The most well-known innovation of the 2007 reform is the maternity (family) capital program, and its another major component is the new rules of monthly childcare allowance assignment. This paper aims to reveal to what extent the observed fertility growth is related to a package of family policy measures introduced in 2007. Since all measures were introduced simultaneously, it is only possible to estimate their cumulative effect on subsequent fertility behavior. To assess how family policy changes introduced in 2007 were related to the fertility behavior in Russia in recent years, we estimate a set of binary logistic regressions using panel Russian Generations and Gender Survey data collected in 2004, 2007, and 2011.