Опыт среднесрочного прогнозирования изменения площади морских льдов в северном полушарии на основе расчетов приходящей солнечной радиации и нейросетевого моделирования
The medium-term forecasting of the sea ice extent has been carried out by determining of the relationship between incoming solar radiation and the sea ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere. Different methods of the statistic and neural modeling have been used. Forecast shows that the main factor determining the variation of the maximum and minimum sea ice extent in the medium-term scale is the variability of solar radiation arrived at the top of the atmosphere. Evaluation of the medium-term forecasts of the sea ice extent demonstrates the effectiveness of using the averaged results of the regression analysis and neural network modeling.