What Influences Stock Market Behavior in Russia and Other Emerging Countries?
We empirically test the dependence of the Russian stock market on the world stock market and world oil prices in the period 1997:10--2012:02. We also analyze countries that can be considered to be relatively similar to Russia, e.g., Poland, the Czech Republic, and South Africa. First, we apply a rolling regression to identify periods when oil prices or stock indices in the United States and Japan were important. Surprisingly, oil prices are not significant for the Russian stock market after 2006. Second, we employ a TGARCH-BEKK model to assess the degree of correlation between the markets in question, taking into account the global market stochastic trend. Correlation between markets increased between 2000 and 2012.