Foresight applications to the analysis of global value chains
The objective of this paper is to analyse the scope for improving the empirical and methodological foundation of global value chains (GVCs) research and for making relevant political decisions, primarily through applying Foresight methodology. The authors review the major trends of global value chains’ development, specific features of Russia’s participation in them, and the necessary steps to increase the quality and efficiency of this participation, in particular in the changing geopolitical context. Special attention was paid to the theoretical, methodological, and empirical aspects of GVC research which are far from adequate (we primarily mean international databases such as TiVA and WIOD developed with the participation of the OECD and the WTO): they need to be supplemented with advanced tools to improve their forecasting potential, as well as their practical and strategic orientation. To this end, approaches which would make it possible to research the interconnections between global processes and trends with regional and national innovation-based development tendencies become of crucial importance. Application of Foresight methodology may significantly contribute to researching the GVC phenomenon, being a major logical step towards creating advanced research and policy tools to mobilise available resources and coordinate stakeholders’ actions to increase global competitiveness. The paper presents several case studies which describe the practical application of Foresight methodology to analyse Russian participation in various GVCs, giving examples of specific product and service groups. The authors conclude that both full-scale Foresight studies and specific components thereof could be applied for the purposes of GVC analysis, strategic planning, and political decision making.