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  • Статистический анализ и моделирование изменчивости качества сточных вод в системе производственного водоотведения

Article

Статистический анализ и моделирование изменчивости качества сточных вод в системе производственного водоотведения

Вопросы статистики. 2016. № 4. С. 41-50.

This article presents results of the study on economic and statistical justification for improvement of water and environmental management of an industrial enterprise. As a main tool the authors applied - was the method for modeling time series using stationary stochastic processes. The models of the integrated auto-regression and moving average, seasonally adjusted were used as the base. The models of fractionally integrated processes and models of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity were tested to reflect the long memory of indicators with characteristics of past period (levels and variations). Analysis of dynamic links was based on vector autoregression model. The authors demonstrated that for all the analyzed indicators of pollution, along with the apparent lack of mid-level trend, there is a considerable variability of values, which manifested in both annual and non-seasonal cyclical and structural changes. The longstanding interrelations between the individual indicators were revealed - for most of them the damping effect of a single excess discharge of any other indicator lasted for at least a year. The article proves sufficiency of the applied econometric tools which have determined the possibility for reliable forecasting the wastewater quality along with optimization of the measures for preventing excessive discharges. Identifying the character of the periodicity of the discharges with account to seasonality, as well as the synergistic effect of contamination indicated the possibility of increasing the efficiency of water treatment process by selecting the optimum costs. The identification of the inertia of the processes of pollution of individual indicators, testified to their possible aggregation from different sources to the necessity of strengthening of control over wastewater discharges for each anthropogenic source and the natural background contamination. Determining the dynamic interrelations between the individual polluters justified a reasonable opportunity to improve the pool cleanability with regard to the structure and duration of those relations.