Развитие производственных цепочек во внутрирегиональной торговле: уроки для ЕАЭС
The article is devoted to the development of global value chains within the regional economic integrations and to the successful experiences of these processes for the Eurasian integration. The development of production chains in the regional trade is possible under the conditions of the openness of the integration group for the international market and foreign direct capital, investment in the creation and development of the transportation systems, and the successive liberalization of tariff and customs restrictions. Using key economic indicators and trade data in terms of Trade in Value-Added (TiVA) produced by international organizations such as OECD, WTO and UNCTAD, the authors reveal the link between the trade policy and the involvement of countries in global value chains. The authors describe the opportunities of the development of production chains in the framework of Eurasian Economic Union, and what obstacles there are. For the analysis of openness of the Russian economy to the external market and assessing the involvement in global value chains the authors have also been used the elasticity of exports and imports. The article describes the industries in the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union, which relatively successfully involved in the global fragmentation of production. As a result of the analysis, the authors identify the main directions of improvement of the foreign economic regulation of the EEU countries for their active participation in global value chains while maintaining the priorities in the field of economic integration. The main of them are – development of the tax system, the coordination of macroeconomic and trade policies, elimination of non-tariff restrictions among participating countries. Improvement of customs regulation is impossible without the adoption of the customs code of the Eurasian economic union, which has to regulate the registration and control of imports to the single customs territory. The active development of intra-regional production linkages requires technological division of labor on the basic phases of product creation that, in turn, reduces commodity specialization in the mutual trade.
Taking price changes from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model of world trade, the authors use a small open economy computable general equilibrium comparative static model of the Russian economy to assess the impact of global free trade and a successful completion of the Doha Agenda on the Russian economy, and especially on the poor. They compare those results with the impact of Russian accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on income distribution and the poor. The model incorporates all 55,000 households from the Russian Household Budget Survey as real households. Crucially, given the importance of foreign direct investment (FDI) liberalization as part of Russian WTO accession, the authors also include FDI and Dixit-Stiglitz endogenous productivity effects from liberalization of import barriers against goods and FDI in services. The authors estimate that Russian WTO accession in the medium run will result in gains averaged over all Russian households equal to 7.3 percent of Russian consumption (with a standard deviation of 2.2 percent of consumption), with virtually all households gaining. They find that global free trade would result in a weighted average gain to households in Russia of 0.2 percent of consumption, with a standard deviation of 0.2 percent of consumption, while a successful completion of the Doha Development Agenda would result in a weighted average gain to households of -0.3 percent of consumption (with a standard deviation of 0.2 percent of consumption). Russia, as a net food importer, loses from subsidy elimination, and the gains to Russia from tariff cuts in other countries are too small to offset these losses. The results strongly support the view that Russia's own liberalization is more important than improvements in market access as a result of reforms in tariffs or subsidies in the rest of the world. Foremost among the own reforms is liberalization of barriers against FDI in business services.
We investigate the 2008–2009 trade collapse using microdata from a small open economy, Belgium. Belgian exports and imports mostly fell because of smaller quantities sold and unit prices charged rather than fewer firms, trading partners, and products being involved in trade. Our difference-in-difference results point to a fall in the demand for tradables as the main driver of the collapse. Finance and involvement in global value chains played a minor role. Firm-level exports-to-turnover and imports-to-intermediates ratios reveal a comparable collapse of domestic and cross-border operations. Overall, our results reject a crisis of cross-border trade per se.
This article assesses the level of openness of Russian economy. It is shown that the open-ness indicators used in the Concept of Long-term Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation differ from those employed by international organisations. The present research analyses both the intensity of Russian trade in terms of its gross domestic product and the relative strength of import penetration in Russia. Methodological differences determine the differences in the analysis results.
This study analyzes the effects of reducing trade barriers in the context of the objectives of competition policy. Separate chapters are devoted to the assessment of the height of Russian trade barriers, the analysis of the impact of international trade on domestic prices and concentration of production.
The paper studies a problem of optimal insurer’s choice of a risk-sharing policy in a dynamic risk model, so-called Cramer-Lundberg process, over infinite time interval. Additional constraints are imposed on residual risks of insureds: on mean value or with probability one. An optimal control problem of minimizing a functional of the form of variation coefficient is solved. We show that: in the first case the optimum is achieved at stop loss insurance policies, in the second case the optimal insurance is a combination of stop loss and deductible policies. It is proved that the obtained results can be easily applied to problems with other optimization criteria: maximization of long-run utility and minimization of probability of a deviation from mean trajectory.