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Regular version of the site

Article

Анализ глобальных цепочек создания стоимости: возможности Форсайт-исследований

Форсайт. 2016. Т. 10. № 1. С. 69-82.
Мешкова Т. А., Моисеичев Е. Я.

The objective of this paper is to analyse the scope for improving empirical and methodological foundation of global value chains (GVCs) research and for making relevant political decisions, primarily through application of foresight methodology. The authors review major trends of global value chains’ development, specific features of Russia’s participation in them, and the necessary steps to increase the quality and efficiency of this participation, in particular in the changing geopolitical context. Special attention was paid to theoretical, methodological, and empirical aspects of GVC research which are far from being adequate (primarily we mean international databases such as TiVA and WIOD developed with participation of the OECD and the WTO): they need to be supplemented with advanced tools to improve their forecasting potential, and practical and strategic orientation. To this end, approaches which would make it possible to research interconnection between global processes and trends with regional and national innovation-based development tendencies become of crucial importance. Application of foresight methodology may significantly contribute to researching the GVC phenomenon, being a major logical step towards creating advanced research and policy tools to mobilise available resources and coordinate stakeholders’ actions to increase global competitiveness. The paper presents a number of case studies which describe practical application of foresight methodology to analyse Russian participation in various GVCs, by the examples of specific product and service group. The authors conclude that both full-scale foresight studies and specific components thereof could be applied for the purposes of GVC analysis, strategic planning and making political decisions.