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Article

Методика расчета надежности поставок в снабжении при нестационарном и дискретном процессе сбоев в поставках

Бочкарев А. А., Бочкарев П. А.

Recently there have published scientific works, which suggested to apply methods of reliability theory to calculating the delivery reliability in supplies. This supply system is seen as recovery system, reliability of supply are characterized by the availability function Ka, and general indicator of supply reliability is the probability of failure-free supply P(t) at a given time τ for the entire study period (t, t+τ), which is calculated on the assumption that the failure rate λ(t) obeys an exponential distribution. The results of our studies show the failure rate λ(t), are generally subject to a normal distribution, instead of an exponential distribution. And existing methods of calculating the delivery reliability in supplies do not take into account the non-stationary and discontinuity of supply disruptions. This paper proposes an improved method of calculating the delivery reliability in supplies, which allows non-stationarity as well as discontinuity of supply disruptions, therefore, more accurate data describing the reliability of suppliers is obtained.