Эффективность государственных инвестиций в инфраструктуру и риски для бюджетной системы
Paper analyses the problem of public infrastructure investment efficiency, including prerequisites, budget risks, best practices of other countries and some ways of addressing this issue. First part compares cost of investment and resulting quality of infrastructure. On this basis author concludes that efficiency of investment in infrastructure in Russia is rather low compared with developed and some developing countries. Further paper examines prerequisites of this phenomenon. All effects are divided into two levels: operational (high costs of projects implementation) and strategic (inefficient decisions). Third part of the paper deals with impact of inefficient investment policy on budget risks. In particular, author looks at such decision as investing National Wealth Fund in infrastructure projects and analyses it using existing evidence on implementation of large infrastructure projects. The fourth part proposes ways to increase efficiency of investment and reduce the risk. Paper concludes that Russia has a great potential to foster efficiency of public investment in infrastructure, at the operational as well as at the strategic level. This will facilitate reduction of corresponding budget risks, in particular, risk of non-return and risk of value increase. The former will be realized through more accurate and objective project selection process. The latter will come into effect though the improvement of monitoring system.
High expenditures on pre-school education in GDP and average annual expenditures per child in different countries depend not only on public investment. Productive public-private partnerships are also of great importance in the pre-school education and education of children. The successful implementation of social programmes and targeted assistance to families, and the creation of working conditions for women with young children, demonstrate the important role of the State in increasing their pre-school education.
The search of factors positively influencing on GDP and which is able to bring economy to higher and more stable economic dynamics, is a topical issue nowadays. The article analyzes how different component of government expenditures and private expenses may influence on the increase of production dynamics. The author also valuated the results of increasing investments level on economic growth for both government and private sources under different directions of use, volumes and effectiveness. Moreover this article reviews the influence of proportion between current and capital expenses in investment over GDP and the advantages of increasing the innovation component within the investment.
Mechanisms of public-private partnership are the good alternative for conservative methods of infrastructure projects financing. Despite the fact that the subject of PPP is not new, the PPP is not prevalent neither in Russia, nor in the world. The application of this approach is able to speed up the economic development and raise the investment attractiveness. This is due to the combination of different opportunities from the government financing and the advantages of project implementation by private sector.
Economic growth in Hungary and Bulgaria will likely decelerate in 2016 due to a slowdown of public investment financed by EU funds. The Romanian economy, meanwhile, is expected to grow faster on the back of additional fiscal stimulus.
The study has two major focuses. The first one is of a methodological kind: we investigate the capabilities of a formal dynamic model to link theory and empirical estimation techniques. The other one is much more specified: we deal with the problems of public good provision and public capital accumulation and depreciation. Tying it all together, we demonstrate how formal theory can adjust the evaluation of public investment efficiency.
The first part of the paper presents the dynamic formal model construction. The core of it is Cobb-Douglas production function with public and private capital as input factors. Public capital stock is increased by budget investment inflow. A set of parameters which regulate system’s efficiency enters the model. They are total factor productivity, public investment effectiveness and the efficiency of public assets’ maintenance and utilization. We also define a special policy space of the model.
In the major part of the paper we examine the data, generated by various models with different efficiency parameter values, via Data envelopment analysis (DEA). We demonstrate that the best estimates are obtained when we use cumulative inputs (the sum of budgets investments over a few time periods). Thus we show that dynamic formal model analysis can make a practical contribution to estimation techniques’ “fine tuning”.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.