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Article

Экономический кризис в России: причины, механизмы развертывания и возможные последствия

The current economic crisis in Russia has been caused by a combination of situational and “systemic” factors. The former group of factors includes (inter alia) a fall in international oil prices; the political revolution in Ukraine; a decrease of public trust in political power institutions in 2008- 2014; and a low quality analytical support of political decision-making process. The most important “systemic” factors are a traditional dependence of Russia on raw materials’ export and the crisis of national identity. The long-term effect of the crisis will be a narrowing of the spectrum of positions that Russia could take in the world economic and political system. Before the crisis, the spectrum of options was limited by a position of regional power (at best) and a position of emerging state/country with an uncertain status, survived in or experiencing a de jure or de facto territorial disintegration. As a result of the crisis the best possible option seems to be a position of a country at the periphery of the developed world deprived of any decisive influence on the politics of its neighbors.