Анализ инвестиций в развитие систем управления эффективностью с применением сетей Петри
The paper focuses on analysis of investments in development of performance management systems that provide information support of strategic management. Such systems do not allow estimating the results of their development in financial terms, so traditional methods of investment appraisal are inapplicable. In this case, comparison of investments with non-financial values seems reasonable. Taking into consideration stochastic factors, the simulation approach is recommended. The purpose of the paper is to develop a discrete-event simulation model for analyzing of results of performance management systems development programs implementation. The appropriate tasks include description of key elements of the model, as well as recommendations regarding evaluation of development programs and selection of the preferable one. The model relies on timed stochastic Petri nets, where time lags are described in terms of holding durations assigned to output arcs. All the time lags may be either deterministic or stochastic. The simulation model presented in the paper allows analysis of investments in performance management systems development. The model contains description of projects, relations between them, as well as impact of the projects on maturity of the performance management system and appropriate financial metrics. The simulation model makes possible calculating generic measures of effectiveness, resource usage and time characteristics of performance management systems development programs. If there are several alternative development programs, these measures may be used for comparison of the programs and selection of one of them for implementation.
This book constitutes the proceedings of the 37th International Conference on Application and Theory of Petri Nets and Concurrency, PETRI NETS 2016, held in Toruń, Poland, in June 2016. Petri Nets 2016 was co-located with the Application of Concurrency to System Design Conference, ACSD 2016. The 16 papers including 3 tool papers with 4 invited talks presented together in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 42 submissions. Papers presenting original research on application or theory of Petri nets, as well as contributions addressing topics relevant to the general field of distributed and concurrent systems are presented within this volume.
These are the proceedings of the International Workshop on Petri Nets and Software Engineering (PNSE’13) and the International Workshop on Modeling and Business Environments (ModBE’13) in Milano, Italy, June 24–25, 2013. These are co-located events of Petri Nets 2013, the 34th international conference on Applications and Theory of Petri Nets and Concurrency.
PNSE'13 presents the use of Petri Nets (P/T-Nets, Coloured Petri Nets and extensions) in the formal process of software engineering, covering modelling, validation, and veriﬁcation, as well as their application and tools supporting the disciplines mentioned above.
ModBE’13 provides a forum for researchers from interested communities to investigate, experience, compare, contrast and discuss solutions for modeling in business environments with Petri nets and other modeling techniques.
This volume constitutes the proceedings of the 34th International Conference on Application and Theory of Petri Nets and Concurrency (PETRI NETS 2013). The Petri Net conferences serve as annual meeting places to discuss the progress in the field of Petri nets and related models of concurrency. They provide a forum for researchers to present and discuss both applications and theoretical developments in this area. Novel tools and substantial enhancements to existing tools can also be presented. The satellite program of the conference comprised three workshops, a Petri net course including basic and advanced tutorials and an additional tutorial on the work of Carl Adam Petri and Anatol W. Holt.
Measuring the value of IT is always a challenge for investors. Market share for service oriented Information Systems (IS) is constantly growing and it creates the demand for methods of measuring the value of SOA-based IS projects. This research is aimed at adopting existing IT Project assessment methods to this growing demand. The work proposes the method that considers the fact that SOA-based IS deployment and evolution could be split in separate flows, one per service. It will allow usage of individual discount rate values per service since project risk values should be different for different services. It should make project value assessment more accurate comparing to existing methods which use the single flow for the entire project. This research also proposes Real Options for calculating the flexibility fraction of the value. The developed method was verified using own simulation model. Both developed method and the simulation model were applied to value assessment of a real-world project.
Nested Petri nets (NP-nets) are Petri nets with net tokens - an extension of high-level Petri nets for modeling active objects, mobility and dynamics in distributed systems. In this paper we present an algorithm for translating two-level NP-nets into behaviorally equivalent Colored Petri nets with the view of applying CPN methods and tools for nested Petri nets analysis. We prove, that the proposed translation preserves dynamic semantics in terms of bisimulation equivalence.
Process mining is a relatively new field of computer science which deals with process discovery and analysis based on event logs. In this work we consider the problem of discovering workflow nets with cancellation regions from event logs. Cancellations occur in the majority of real-life event logs. In spite of huge amount of process mining techniques little has been done on cancellation regions discovery. We show that the state-based region algorithm gives labeled Petri nets with overcomplicated control flow structure for logs with cancellations. We propose a novel method to discover cancellation regions from the transition systems built on event logs and show the way to construct equivalent workflow net with reset arcs to simplify the control flow structure.
Financial markets have always been attractive as a means of increasing one's wealth, and those who make accurate predictions take the prize. Forecasting models such as linear ones are simple to compute, however, they give rough approximations of the underlying relationships in the data, thus, producing poor forecasts. The solution to this issue could be the nonlinear models which try to fit the data and display the relationships with higher accuracy. Previous research seems to prove this statement from the statistician's point of view which might be of little use for an investor. Therefore, the focus of this paper is on the comparison of three types of models (nonlinear: ANN, STAR, and linear: AR) in terms of financial performance. Our research is based on the initial code for GAUSS and papers by Dick van Dijk. The data used is the monthly S&P 500 Index values from 1970 to 2012 provided by the Robert Shiller's website. Forecasting index changes begins at 1995 and ends in 2012 providing up-to-date results for 14 model specifications. The best model proves to be the flexible ANN, beating the linear AR in the majority of cases, leaving the underperforming heavy-parameterized STAR model behind. Thus, it is evident that the more flexible nonlinear models outperform the heavily parameterized ones as well as linear models for the S&P 500 Index. The introduced type of performance evaluation has a more comprehensible application to the financial market analysis.
In the paper integrated information systems for corporate planning and budgeting are considered. Four groups of practical tasks exceeding the bounds of typical functionality of special-purpose planning and budgeting information systems are allocated. Several classes of information systems (simulation, statistical analysis, financial analysis and modeling, group decision making, business intelligence), which may provide the completeness of corporate planning and budgeting are denoted as solutions complementary to special-purpose planning and budgeting systems.
A model for organizing cargo transportation between two node stations connected by a railway line which contains a certain number of intermediate stations is considered. The movement of cargo is in one direction. Such a situation may occur, for example, if one of the node stations is located in a region which produce raw material for manufacturing industry located in another region, and there is another node station. The organization of freight traﬃc is performed by means of a number of technologies. These technologies determine the rules for taking on cargo at the initial node station, the rules of interaction between neighboring stations, as well as the rule of distribution of cargo to the ﬁnal node stations. The process of cargo transportation is followed by the set rule of control. For such a model, one must determine possible modes of cargo transportation and describe their properties. This model is described by a ﬁnite-dimensional system of diﬀerential equations with nonlocal linear restrictions. The class of the solution satisfying nonlocal linear restrictions is extremely narrow. It results in the need for the “correct” extension of solutions of a system of diﬀerential equations to a class of quasi-solutions having the distinctive feature of gaps in a countable number of points. It was possible numerically using the Runge–Kutta method of the fourth order to build these quasi-solutions and determine their rate of growth. Let us note that in the technical plan the main complexity consisted in obtaining quasi-solutions satisfying the nonlocal linear restrictions. Furthermore, we investigated the dependence of quasi-solutions and, in particular, sizes of gaps (jumps) of solutions on a number of parameters of the model characterizing a rule of control, technologies for transportation of cargo and intensity of giving of cargo on a node station.
Event logs collected by modern information and technical systems usually contain enough data for automated process models discovery. A variety of algorithms was developed for process models discovery, conformance checking, log to model alignment, comparison of process models, etc., nevertheless a quick analysis of ad-hoc selected parts of a journal still have not get a full-fledged implementation. This paper describes an ROLAP-based method of multidimensional event logs storage for process mining. The result of the analysis of the journal is visualized as directed graph representing the union of all possible event sequences, ranked by their occurrence probability. Our implementation allows the analyst to discover process models for sublogs defined by ad-hoc selection of criteria and value of occurrence probability
The geographic information system (GIS) is based on the first and only Russian Imperial Census of 1897 and the First All-Union Census of the Soviet Union of 1926. The GIS features vector data (shapefiles) of allprovinces of the two states. For the 1897 census, there is information about linguistic, religious, and social estate groups. The part based on the 1926 census features nationality. Both shapefiles include information on gender, rural and urban population. The GIS allows for producing any necessary maps for individual studies of the period which require the administrative boundaries and demographic information.
Existing approaches suggest that IT strategy should be a reflection of business strategy. However, actually organisations do not often follow business strategy even if it is formally declared. In these conditions, IT strategy can be viewed not as a plan, but as an organisational shared view on the role of information systems. This approach generally reflects only a top-down perspective of IT strategy. So, it can be supplemented by a strategic behaviour pattern (i.e., more or less standard response to a changes that is formed as result of previous experience) to implement bottom-up approach. Two components that can help to establish effective reaction regarding new initiatives in IT are proposed here: model of IT-related decision making, and efficiency measurement metric to estimate maturity of business processes and appropriate IT. Usage of proposed tools is demonstrated in practical cases.
The manual is intended for students of Department of computer engineering MIEM HSE. In the textbook based on the courses "Economics of firm" and "the development strategy of the organization." Discusses the key conceptual and methodological issues of the theory and practice of Economics and development planning of the organization. The use of textbooks will enable students: to analyze key performance indicators, and use the tools of strategic analysis with reference to concrete situations in contemporary Russian and international business. Special attention is paid to the methods and systems of information support of the life support functions of business organizations and management methodology of innovation and investment. An Appendix contains source data for analysis of competition in a particular industry.
The paper provides a number of proposed draft operational guidelines for technology measurement and includes a number of tentative technology definitions to be used for statistical purposes, principles for identification and classification of potentially growing technology areas, suggestions on the survey strategies and indicators. These are the key components of an internationally harmonized framework for collecting and interpreting technology data that would need to be further developed through a broader consultation process. A summary of definitions of technology already available in OECD manuals and the stocktaking results are provided in the Annex section.
Over the last two decades national policy makers drew special attention to the implementation of policy tools which foster international cooperation in the fields of science, technology, and innovation. In this paper, we look at cases of Russian-German collaboration to examine the initiatives of the Russian government aimed at stimulating the innovation activity of domestic corporations and small and medium enterprises. The data derived from the interviews with companies’ leaders show positive effects of bilateral innovative projects on the overall business performance alongside with major barriers hindering international cooperation. To overcome these barriers we provide specific suggestions relevant to the recently developed Russian Innovation Strategy 2020.