Моделирование и оценка программ развития систем управления эффективностью
Importance. The paper focuses on development of performance management systems that provide information support of corporate governance and strategic management. At present, any integral methodology of such systems’ development management is not available, so establishing of principles and approaches to evaluation and selection of their development programs seems actual.
Objectives. The purpose of this paper is to advance a methodological approach to evaluating of performance management systems development programs. Appropriate tasks include elicitation of features of development programs for such systems, as well as definition of methods and models allowing evaluation of alternative development programs and selection of one of them for implementation.
Methods. The paper relies on analysis of existing methods of development management for organizational and technical systems. A conceptual model of a performance management system development program is established taking into account the nature and features of discrete event simulation.
Results. Specificity of evaluation of performance management systems development programs includes impossibility of financial estimation of their results (and, consequently, inapplicability of traditional investment analysis methods), as well as significant influence of uncertainty. Such programs should be evaluated relying on dynamics of the systems’ maturity (in comparison with certain maturity levels), with application of discrete event simulation. The main elements of the model are projects, events, development metrics and financial metrics. The results of simulation are applied for evaluation of development programs according to effectiveness and economy criteria. These criteria may be supplemented by qualitative aspects estimated by experts within multiple criteria decision analysis.
Conclusions and Relevance. Evaluation of performance management systems development programs should rely on the dynamics of such systems’ maturity levels and appropriate financial metrics, taking into consideration stochastic nature of some of parameters. A conceptual simulation model of the system’s development is advanced; principles of development programs evaluation based on simulation results are justified.