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Article

Математико-картографическое моделирование межрегиональных миграционных потоков в России

Тимонин С. А., Тикунова И. Н., Штробл Й.

The paper is devoted to the detailed analysis of interregional migratory flows in Russia in 2000–2010 on the basis of the use of mathematic-cartographical models of migration. The investigation is aimed at application of mathematical and new GIS approaches for the development of forecasts of interregional migratory movements that is the extremely difficult task for both demographers and geographers. Results of modeling are included in the general forecasting models of size and structure of the population of Russian regions, and also will be used for management of migratory processes in Russia under conditions of general depopulation and reduction of its labor force. The detailed analysis of interregional migratory streams in Russia for 2000–2010 is carried out. For description and analysis of migratory processes, their subsequent interpretation and fore-  casting mathematic-statistical and mathematic-cartographical models of migration were used. Thus, accounting of spatial aspect turned out to be extremely important that demanded attraction of geographical, including geoinformation research methods. The new mathematical models necessary for description and forecast of migration which will be described below are developed. A series of maps reflecting migratory movements in 2000–2010, as well as the maps of dynamics is prepared.