Динамика прогнозной силы моделей банкротства для средних и малых российских компаний оптовой и розничной торговли
The chief aim of this paper is to analyse dynamics of linear and non-linear methods to predict bankruptcy for Russian private small and medium-sized retail and wholesale trade companies. We use financial and non-financial data prior and subsequent to the economic crisis of 2008—2009. We use the following methods: logistic regression and random forest.
This research will be of vital importance especially to banks and other credit organisations providing loans to small and medium businesses.
Our dataset comprises from 200,000 to 600,000 companies depending on specific year. We use data from the Ruslana database which covers the period from 2004 to 2012.
The definition of default is extended to financial difficulties by adding voluntary liquidated firms to those liquidated as a result of legal bankruptcy. We study active companies and two types of liquidated ones.
Heterogeneity of Russian companies is taken into account in several ways. In addition to financial ratios derived from financial statements we include non-financial variables such as regional distribution, age, size and legal form into statistical models.
Evaluation of the prediction performance is done with the help of out-of-sample forecasts. We obtain models with quite high predictive power, area under ROC curve reaches 0.75. Random forest outperformed logit-model. Adding non-financial information such as age and federal region leads to the improved forecasts while legal form and size do not have a great impact on the outcome. Among financial measures liquidity, profitability and leverage ratios turned out to be essential. Moreover, our models captured a structural change which was likely to be caused by the crisis of 2008—2009.
The aim of this article is to present the results of a stady devoted to the analysis of problems and search of possibilities of interaction between banks and small business. The analysis is based on a review of data of borrowers of regional banks of Nizhny Novgorod region in Russia.
In the current climate of sanctions imposed against Russia by several countries in 2014, special attention should be given to high-tech sectors of the economy as a key source of import substitution on the domestic market. One of the important policy measures is to support the development of high-tech, specialized clusters by forming new linkages and strengthening existing ones between small and medium-sized businesses, large enterprises, and research organizations. The starting point for an effective cluster policy is to define areas with high potential for clustering of these industries. The paper presents an original method to identify potential clusters and tests the method on Russian regions. We show that most of the state-supported pilot innovative territorial clusters are being developed in regions and sectors that have a high level of cluster potential. A typology of existing clusters depends on the index of clustering potential. We identified regions that have similar or comparatively favourable conditions for creating clusters in the pilot sectors.
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This paper is concerned with stock liquidity as a factor in making capital structure decisions by managers of Russian firms. Although a big number of studies on capital structure occurred over the last few decades, stock liquidity has only recently attracted scholars’ attention as a possible driver for the choice of capital structure. Yet the existing papers are based on data from the developed capital markets. The latter differ substantially from the Russian market in terms of institutional environment and more liquid stocks. Against the background of revisions in the Russian clearing system that are expected to boost liquidity of stocks, this paper gains in currency.
The theoretic mechanisms behind the interplay of stock liquidity and capital structure are discussed in previous studies. Lower stock liquidity is associated with higher transaction costs and informational asymmetry, and thus with higher required return. Therefore it is assumed that the managers aiming at firm value maximization would prefer debt to equity financing in case if stock is not liquid enough. There are also theoretic grounds to expect an opposite impact of capital structure on stock liquidity.
There is a sharp contradiction between public policies to support SMEs and features of Russian national SMEs. Using western experience in Russia, doing some bright projects to stimulate small businesses was important twenty years ago. Quantitative and qualitative parameters of SMEs in Russia lag behind most countries, largely due to the structure of its economy with the traditional dominance of large enterprises
and the prevailing business climate. Small and medium-sized business in Russia is not innovative, does not perform antitrust function and does not create many
jobs. Small and medium-sized business generates a positive competitive environment. But the importance of SMEs in Russia should not be exaggerated. The scale of subcontracting and franchising with independent small businesses in our country is extremely small. It happened so that the Russian economic policy and the leading part of the national political establishment were in a subordinate position in relation to the interests of a narrow circle of large businesses, mainly engaged in production and export of the most important natural resources. Manufacturing, infrastructural and other facilities of big business, its supply and marketing relations and, most importantly, its long-term economic interests focus on large enterprises and, with few exceptions, show no interest for the SMEs sector. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that the Russian system of economic institutions encourages big business mostly. It also proves an essential specific situation of small and medium-sized businesses in Russia. The development of Russian small and medium-sized business entirely depends on the state of the economy and the business climate in the country. The business climate in Russia does not correspond to the needs of small and medium-sized businesses. Measures to improve the business climate can potentially help Russian small and medium-sized businesses much more than the existing costly system meant to support them. It is obvious that the whole Russian system for SMEs support, fold increase in the federal budget to support Russian SMEs occurred in the recent years, is unable to compensate for a generally unfavorable business environment in Russia. It is necessary to improve the quality of investment, business climate and institutions in Russia. The real growth of the Russian SMEs can be expected only with the modernization, new industrialization of the Russian economy and business climate improvements.
This article provides the results of development of bankruptcy prediction static model and its testing on the sample of more than thousand companies of manufacturing industry. The main scenarios of bankruptcy are identified and it is shown that depending on the bankruptcy scenario possible insolvency can be predicted one or four years before.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.