Projecting Mozambique’s demographic future
The recent decade has witnessed remarkable success in various aspects of socioeconomic development in Tropical Africa. However, contrary to the “development is the best contraceptive” expectations, fertility in many countries remains stalled, frequently at very high levels of 5 and more children per woman. This actualizes the risks of population explosions, which are particularly sharp, and can bear truly dramatic consequences for national and even regional development, in the largest countries. In order to foresee such risks, valid population projections are necessary. The only widely recognized comprehensive series of such forecasts is currently developed by the UN Population Division; however, the method underlying their forecast has a number of limitations. We offer a different method for modelling the scenarios of demographic future of a given country. We apply this method to the case of Mozambique and reveal that the population projections calculated for Mozambique by the UN Population Division in 2012 – 2013 seem to be overly optimistic.
The author shows that demographic transition is an organic part of civilization developments. Such phenomen as death rate and birth rate, changes in character of migration are connected with stages of development of a civilization.
This article is about the life of Dmitry Bystroliotov (1901-1975), a Soviet intelligence officer, about his adventures in the Sahara desert and the Congo in the 1930s. Some information about Bystroliotov and about his trip emerged many years after his death, in the 1990s. But even today much of the story remains mysterious. Bystroliotovs first publications although a mystery too appeared in our journal in 1963. We continue the story on the basis of what has come to light since then.
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The authors discuss why conflicts emerge and how they are settled in different African regions and countries. Prospects for their peaceful resolution are studied. Basing on case studies, the authors propose theoretical approaches to conflicts.
HIV first appeared in West-Central Africa, then spread to the South, East and West and, at the same time, practically did not reach North Africa. A possible explanation of this pattern could be in the role of Islam which pays particular attention to the prevention of extramarital sexual relations. In addition, one can mention that circumcised men suffer from HIV significantly less frequently than non-circumcised. Against such background, we had certain grounds to expect that Islamic societies would have lower levels of HIV prevalence than non-Islamic. Our cross-cultural tests have supported this hypothesis. The data have been analyzed with power-law regression. We have found a significant (p < .001) and really strong (r = -.747) negative power-law correlation between percentage of Muslims and the HIV prevalence in African countries. Of course, one should take into account that the stigma attached to HIV is also much higher among Muslims and so, Muslims tend to be tested, identified and monitored at lower numbers than those from other religious and cultural backgrounds, which implies that further in-depth research is necessary in order to detect the real relationship between variables in question.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The results of cross-cultural research of implicit theories of innovativeness among students and teachers, representatives of three ethnocultural groups: Russians, the people of the North Caucasus (Chechens and Ingushs) and Tuvinians (N=804) are presented. Intergroup differences in implicit theories of innovativeness are revealed: the ‘individual’ theories of innovativeness prevail among Russians and among the students, the ‘social’ theories of innovativeness are more expressed among respondents from the North Caucasus, Tuva and among the teachers. Using the structural equations modeling the universal model of values impact on implicit theories of innovativeness and attitudes towards innovations is constructed. Values of the Openness to changes and individual theories of innovativeness promote the positive relation to innovations. Results of research have shown that implicit theories of innovativeness differ in different cultures, and values make different impact on the attitudes towards innovations and innovative experience in different cultures.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.
We address the external effects on public sector efficiency measures acquired using Data Envelopment Analysis. We use the health care system in Russian regions in 2011 to evaluate modern approaches to accounting for external effects. We propose a promising method of correcting DEA efficiency measures. Despite the multiple advantages DEA offers, the usage of this approach carries with it a number of methodological difficulties. Accounting for multiple factors of efficiency calls for more complex methods, among which the most promising are DMU clustering and calculating local production possibility frontiers. Using regression models for estimate correction requires further study due to possible systematic errors during estimation. A mixture of data correction and DMU clustering together with multi-stage DEA seems most promising at the moment. Analyzing several stages of transforming society’s resources into social welfare will allow for picking out the weak points in a state agency’s work.