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Article

Оптимизация простых правил монетарной политики на базе оцененной DSGE-модели

Optimization of coefficients in monetary policy rules is performed on the base of the DSGE-model with two independent monetary policy instruments estimated on the Russian data. It was found that welfare maximizing policy rules lead to inadequate result and pro-cyclical monetary policy. Optimal coefficients in Taylor rule and exchange rate rule allow decreasing about 20% of volatility estimated on Russian data of 2001–2012. The degree of exchange rate flexibility parameter was found to be lower than its current value. It means that Bank of Russia has to systematically smooth exchange rate dynamics when it will adopt inflation targeting in 2015.