Последствия демографического старения для пенсионной системы в среднесрочной перспективе: опыт прогнозирования для России
Ageing of population is a main challenge to the Russian pension system for coming decades. To what extent changing of parameters of demographic development - various rates of life expectancy growth, birth and migration rates will impact the finances of pension system? Authors answer this question using the analysis of forecasted dynamics of pension benefits and of the pension incomes and expenditures balance in frame of pay-as-you-go pension system. The article discusses the methodology of pension forecasts and its possible limitations, as well as the results of forecasting of basic parameters of pension system till 2030 in different scenarios of the population projection. The issue of financial consequences of possible growth of pension age is discussed separately.