Is Mining Fuelling Long-run Growth in Russia? Industry Productivity Growth Trends since 1995
GDP per capita growth rates in Russia have been amongst the highest in the world since the mid-1990s. Previous growth accounting research suggests that this was mainly driven by multi-factor productivity (MFP) growth. In this paper we analyse for the first time the drivers of Russian growth for thirty-four industries for the period 1995 to 2008. We pay in particular attention to derive a proper measure of capital services, instead of the stock measures used in previous research. Using these new measures, we find that aggregate GDP growth is driven as much by capital input as MFP growth. Mining and Retailing take up an increasing share of the input, but have poor MFP performance. In contrast, MFP growth was high in goods producing industries but this sector’s GDP share declined. The major drivers of MFP growth were in high-skilled services industries that were particularly underdeveloped in the Russian economy in the 1990s.
This paper studies structural transformation and its implications for productivity growth in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) from the 1980s onwards. Based on a critical assessment of the reliability and consistency of various primary data sources, we bring together a new database that provides trends in value added and employment at a detailed 35-sector level. Structural decomposition analysis suggests that for China, India and Russia reallocation of labour across sectors is contributing to aggregate productivity growth, whereas in Brazil it is not. This confirms and strengthens the findings of McMillan and Rodrik [NBER working paper 17143, 2011]. However, this result is overturned when a distinction is made between formal and informal activities within sectors. Increasing formalization of the Brazilian economy since 2000 appears to be growth-enhancing, while in India the increase in informality after the reforms is growth-reducing.
The Russian economy has been booming over the past decade and flexed its muscles in the international political and economic arena. But how strong is the Russian economy really? Is it mainly based on the revenues of gas and oil exports? Or is it the result of major changes in the structure and productivity in the economy since the breakdown of the communist system? To what extent will these changes be mainly transitory, reflecting the shift from a planned economy towards a free market environment, or permanent? In this article we compare the pattern of economic growth in Russia in the past decades with that of other economic regions in the world economy and argue that some features of sustainable growth have appeared in the last decade. The current crisis will be a major test of the resilience of the Russian economy.
This book provides a unique and timely analysis of the role of structural change in the economic development of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) with a consideration for the role of industry, and in particular manufacturing. The emergence of BRICS reflects an ongoing change in the international economic order. BRICS now account for very substantial part of global GDP, global manufactured value added and global manufactured exports. The book examines their economic experiences and structural change in BRICS over the past three decades, identifying both differences and commonalities, and deriving lessons for other industrializing countries. Section I contains comparative studies focusing on the commonalities and differences of the experiences of BRICS. Section II includes six country studies providing a more detailed analysis of the long-run experiences of each of the countries. Section III consists of a set of seven thematic studies focusing on specific topics such as global value chains, the role of transnational corporations in the food chain, the role of foreign versus domestic investment, the role of domestic versus foreign demand in economic growth the diffusion of environmental energy technology and the similarities, and the differences in industrial policies pursued in the five countries. The book contains a summary chapter that provides an integrated perspective of the various contributions from the point of view of poverty reduction and development. It asks, whether the patterns of structural change and industrial development that BRICS experienced, had an impact on poverty outcomes, and if so, what where the channels and the consequences?
This paper studies structural transformation and its implications for productivity growth in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) from the 1980s onwards. Based on a critical assessment of the reliability and consistency of various primary data sources, we bring together a new database that provides trends in value added and employment at a detailed 35-sector level. Structural decomposition analysis suggests that for China, India and Russia reallocation of labor across sectors is contributing to aggregate productivity growth, whereas in Brazil it is not. This confirms and strengthens the findings of McMillan and Rodrik [NBER Working Paper 17143, 2011]. However, this result is overturned when a distinction is made between formal and informal activities within sectors. Increasing formalization of the Brazilian economy since 2000 appears to be growth-enhancing, while in India the increase in informality after the reforms is growth-reducing.
This paper presents an empirical analysis of the Russian market of mergers and acquisitions (the largest market for corporate control in Central and Eastern Europe) in 2003-2012 in terms of the total volume and value of the merger and acquisition deals of the holding companies. This analysis allowed for the conclusion that, to assess and forecast the integration activity of holding companies, the most precise and appropriate models are seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models built on weighted observations to eliminate the effect of the structural changes which are characteristic of developing economies. Forecasting the values of development of the market for corporate control may serve as “input” information to form a prompt regulation system for the mergers and acquisitions of holding companies, which meets current needs. The presented analysis makes it possible to work out measures of public policy to increase the efficiency of the integration activity of holding companies.
The goal of this study is to examine the performance of the Russian economy during the 2000’s. The authors study sources of economic growth during the period applying growth accounting framework and discussing standard assumptions and statistical problems. The relatively intensive growth of the Russian economy was accompanied by a very slow decline of inflation rates. The Chapter discusses the specific features of the recent consumer price rise and considers several manifestations of inflation persistence during the last decade.
At the Joint World Conference on Social Work and Social Development in Hong Kong in 2010 a set of values was formulated that defined the mission of social work and the development of social policy. It is assumed that these key values, and in particular the principles of social justice and empowerment, are shared by social work and social policy practitioners, educators and experts. In the history of the profession there are many examples in which social workers sought, and successfully achieved, politically significant changes in the social order. However, there were also periods of a decline in activism and a decrease in the role of structural or political social work. This chapter presents the results of a study of the participation of Russian social workers in processes of structural changes. Interviews with social workers were conducted in several Russian regions. Case studies present mechanisms of changes evoked through counter-actions and compromises, individual activity or collective action, consolidation with social movements and other agents, through the implementation of new methods and forms of casework in the system of social services, or through the lobbying of legislative changes and the practice of institutionalised forms of conflict resolution in courts. Strategies for promoting social change, agents of change and institutional barriers are discussed in the theoretical context of professionalism as a value system and ideology.
The world, of late, has seen a productivity slowdown. Many countries continue to recover from various shocks in the macro business environment, along with structural changes and inward looking policies. In contemporary times of growth slumps, various exits and protectionist regimes, this book engages with the study of productivity dynamics in the emerging and industrialized economies. The essays address the crucial aspects, such as the roles of human capital, investment accounting and datasets, that help understanding of productivity performance of global economy and its several regions.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.